Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,859 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
All four markets today. Here’s what to know about how we operate in each.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 24–11, we’re up 11.93 units, we’re up 34% (the average line on our winners has been –105). Things continue to go well.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.74 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.29 units so far.
Atlanta @ Miami
The Marlins did not come through for us yesterday. Braxton Garrett got rocked. They’re favored today against the best team in baseball by a mile and a half. This is all a bad recipe.
Still, the numbers line up, and Miami’s got the fresher bullpen, and bullpens should matter today, with Dylan Dodd not exactly dominant in his two MLB starts so far. Being a top prospect for Atlanta isn’t the same as being a top prospect for Tampa Bay. Atlanta’s system is running dry.
Pick: Miami to win –107. Low confidence.
ALCS
For all the hand-wringing about the Red Sox’ offseason, and for all the vitriol spewed their way, the team isn’t that bad. Their chance of making the playoffs is comparable to that of the Orioles, three games ahead of them in the standings, and if the season ended today, both would be playing in the Wild Card Series.
Things might not go well for the Red Sox from here. They play in a division where every team is expected to finish with a winning record. Still, that includes them, and with some value opening on Boston today, we’ll add it to our mix.
Pick: Boston to win +3500. Medium confidence.
World Series
Value also opened on the Diamondbacks today, who just keep hanging around. With the Dodgers’ and Padres’ expectations mostly flipping places and the Giants still looking aimed where they were, for Arizona’s purposes Arizona is the only team that’s moved in the NL West. They entered the year 15% likely, per FanGraphs, to make the playoffs. They’ve nearly doubled that, going from 1-in-7 likely to make the field to 2-in-7 likely. This is a longshot, but we take those, and often, one produces some good leverage for us.
Pick: Arizona to win +15000. Medium confidence.
Western Conference
One thing we see a lot in the odds for NBA and NHL postseason series is a lean towards the home team to win Game 2 when trailing 1–0. This actually creates some value, in our eyes, on the Lakers tonight, but only if you don’t think that’s reasonable. To be honest, we’re torn.
We trust FiveThirtyEight’s NBA model a lot, but we trust it more on long-term, big-picture stuff than with individual games. We admittedly don’t have a scientific basis for this. It’s based on a collection of untracked, anecdotal experiences combined with some early success for our 538-based futures so far this year. Still, we’re going to trust the long term angle, because it allows us to trust both sides of this: 538’s probabilities give this a positive eROI. The market says the Warriors are even likelier to win tonight than 538 suggests. That gives us the potential to create some leverage heading into Game 3.
Pick: Golden State to win +375. Low confidence.
Second Round: Carolina vs. New Jersey
The market doesn’t do that Game 2 thing when the home team wins Game 1. Carolina does, however, enjoy a much better likelihood of getting through to the conference finals than they did yesterday at this time, and we’re going to jump on that, especially with nothing else on Carolina so far. This gives us at least something on seven of the eight teams remaining, with the Leafs the lone team where Gelo’s left us empty (we did pick up some wins from the Leafs getting past the Lightning).
Pick: Carolina to win –168. Low confidence.
