Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,337 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 23–28 so far, down 5.07 units. We’re on another cold stretch right now.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.39 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down one unit so far.
Cleveland @ Houston
We’re still not out on Spencer Arrighetti, whose FIP and xERA greatly outpace his ERA. Both teams are short on the bullpen front, but the Guardians are shorter.
Pick: Houston to win –125. Low confidence. (Allen and Arrighetti must start.)
ALCS
Are the Tigers finally back? They’re back enough for a 25-to-1 addition here. Five games over .500 and led by one of the best pitchers in the game so far this year, Detroit’s in too good of a position with too good of upside to pass this up.
Pick: Detroit to win +2500. Medium confidence.
World Series
Elsewhere, we’ll happily hop in on the Phillies. They’ve been entirely absent from our portfolio so far, but they will in all likelihood not be absent from the postseason. Nice to have them here.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +1400. Medium confidence.
Eastern Conference (NBA)
We continue to take the coward’s way out in the nBA, making sure we’re insulated against the prospect of a Celtics vs. Nuggets matchup in the Finals. So far, we’re keeping that up, and we’ve preserved some upside elsewhere. But we’re treading a low-upside line with these.
Pick: Boston to win –200. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
We’re back on the Eastern Conference as a whole, continuing to trust that Gelo’s closer to the truth on the Oilers than the market is. This is an incomplete look at our portfolio, because we have futures in markets other than the Stanley Cup, but the Stanley Cup portion of our portfolio now stacks up like this:
| P/L | Stanley Cup |
| 14.24 | Rangers |
| 5.24 | Hurricanes |
| 3.79 | Panthers |
| -2.26 | Leafs/Bruins |
| -6.00 | West Champ |
Pick: Eastern Conference champion to win –115. Low confidence.
