Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,936 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
All four markets today. Here’s where each one stands.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 34–22, we’re up 8.15 units, we’re up 15% (the average line on our winners has been –113). It’s been a good start to the year, and while May hasn’t been a great month overall, we’ve had a good recent run, winning our last five.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 7.63 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.03 units so far.
Baltimore @ New York (AL)
Clarke Schmidt’s been pitching better lately, turning in a 3.24 FIP over his last month of work and averaging five innings per start over that stretch. The Yankees have the fresher bullpen tonight, they’ve been playing good ball, they’re the home team looking for a series win. We don’t see any red flags.
Pick: New York (AL) to win –132. Low confidence. (Gibson and Schmidt must start.)
AL East
The Yankees’ recent heater has opened up a little more value on the Rays again, and we could use that value right now, having dipped away from division favorites recently. We only take positive value until it’s time to hedge, and one way to avoid having to hedge is to monitor our baseline, or what we’ll make if each division favorite wins. With this one and the next one, our baseline’s back profitable.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win –160. Medium confidence.
AL Central
We do have a significant division liability on the Guardians. They’re our biggest risk. They’re also four and a half games back of the Twins, and per FanGraphs they’re only 11.9% likely to win the Central. That’s not a bad biggest risk.
Pick: Minnesota to win –250. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
After yesterday’s hedge, our immediate concern of not losing money on the Eastern Conference Finals is taken care of. Whatever happens in that series, we’ll at least break even in that market. Looking for value elsewhere, then, we come back to the Heat.
No matter how you slice it, the Heat are more likely to win this series than the Celtics. The likelier thing is that they get past the Celtics, and that their championship odds then shorten quite a bit, given the market’s implying only roughly a 70% chance they do finish the job. We like the Heat and will likely continue to like the Heat, and with the opportunity here to build an even bigger upside position on them, we’re going to take it, even if it leaves us with a slightly more underwhelming scenario should the Celtics complete the comeback.
Pick: Miami to win +375. Low confidence.
Western Conference
This is tiny, but a 5% return isn’t bad over a week or so, and Gelo does see positive value. If the Stars win Games 4 and 5, we’re going to hedge anyway, so we might as well try to pick up a tiny fraction of a unit today.
Pick: Vegas to win –2000. Low confidence.
