Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,388 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 42–47 so far, down 9.50 units. This is like when a young team unexpectedly performs well one season then opens slow to start the next year: We don’t know whether we’re going to heat back up or if we’re actually just bad at this.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.67 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down 2.20 units so far.
Seattle @ New York (AL)
We believe in Luis Gil. But. If you’d told us preseason that we’d be getting these kinds of odds on Luis Castillo?
There’s a lot of truth to preseason projections, and while Gil has proven himself, he’s still probably not *better* than a guy like Castillo. The Yankees do have the better lineup, but not by enough to take away the value here.
On the time zone front: This is Day 7 of a ten-day East Coast swing for Seattle. They should be adjusted by now.
Pick: Seattle to win +132. Low confidence.
AL East
There’s opportunity again on the Yankees in the division market, with bettors probably overvaluing the Orioles. The Yankees do come with slightly higher injury risk than average, but it’s easy to overweight that.
Pick: New York to win –175. Medium confidence.
World Series
Xander Bogaerts is on the IL, but we still like the value here more than any other value in MLB markets right now. The Luis Arraez trade made that injury a lot smaller deal.
Pick: San Diego to win +6500. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
The Timberwolves losing Game 1 hurt, but wasn’t entirely unexpected. We see positive value today on the Celtics in that game’s aftermath, and we’ll take it, as odds are likelier to shorten than lengthen after tonight. We’ve got two outs right now: The first is if the Wolves win the West. The second is if the Celtics win the Finals. Not a bad pair.
Pick: Boston to win –165. Low confidence.
NHL Western Conference
Gelo doesn’t have this as terribly mispriced, but we do like the Stars in this series, and while we continue to see upside on the Rangers, it’ll still be there tomorrow if we decide we want to chase it.
Pick: Dallas to win –130. Low confidence.
