Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,860 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Due to some scheduling conflicts, we’ll have Gelo’s hockey picks later today (UPDATE: the hockey picks are in here now), for both tonight’s game and our futures portfolio. Right now, just baseball. For some portfolio context: The NHL futures bankroll started at 100 units, with 100 in reserve in case of hedging need, while the MLB futures bankroll started at 520 units, with another 520 in reserve for October and any necessary hedging.
AL West
More anchoring today. We have choices for how to do this between the Astros, Brewers, and Yankees. All are heavy division favorites, all present positive value according to our calculations. The Brewers are the likeliest, and we currently stand to profit the least from them winning, but they have the lowest payout. The Yankees offer us the highest profit as our portfolio currently stands, but we have the least down on them. We’ll take the Astros, because they have the highest value and because while, entering today, they make us more money than the Brewers do, we still haven’t invested as much in them, and we’re happy to change that. The next time we’re looking to anchor on the division side, we may switch to Milwaukee.
Pick: Houston to win -185. Medium confidence.
Pick: Houston to win -185. Medium confidence.
St. Louis @ Colorado
Gelo’s preferences today are the unders and the underdogs, and while you could try playing both underdogs and hoping on one of them to hit, we’ll keep ourselves in damage-control mode here, not exactly trusting Gelo right now ourselves (low confidence is a test, everybody). It’s gone 3-1 on totals in these second round series so far, and it started the first round strong on totals before fading. Is there something there?
Pick: Under 6.5 +110. Low confidence.
Second Round: Florida vs. Tampa Bay
Gelo continues to only see value on the Lightning, Rangers, Oilers, and Blues—the underdogs—and of those four, we stand to gain the least from the Lightning winning. We’ll chase a little immediate value here, hoping Tampa Bay can grab a 2-0 series lead tonight and put us into a power position for a moment.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win -135. Low confidence.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win -135. Low confidence.
