Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,895 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
All four markets today, but this will be the last day of MLB futures for the week. Those will resume on Monday.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 28–21, we’re up 4.32 units, we’re up 9% (the average line on our winners has been –111). It’s been a good start to the year, but May hasn’t been as strong as April.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.27 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.73 units so far.
New York (AL) @ Toronto
It’s been a dramatic series in Toronto, with sign-stealing speculation, a sticky hand, and a scoreless game through nine last night won in the tenth on a Danny Jansen walk-off. Each bullpen is pretty well spent entering tonight, which makes starting pitching key, and while José Berríos has been better this year, especially in the FIP department, the contact quality is still a problem. He’s got an xERA of 4.87 against an ERA of 4.80, implying he’s actually been a little lucky relative to how hard the ball is being hit against him. Nestor Cortes, meanwhile, has the opposite problem: He’s got a 3.91 xERA against a 5.53 ERA.
Berríos is arguably the better pitcher, but I’m not sure that’s true, and even if it is, this is about value. The value, tonight, is on the Yankees.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +127. Low confidence. (Cortes and Berríos must start.)
AL Central
We’ve been working for a while at getting to a place where if every division favorite wins, we profit on the division portion of our portfolio. With this bet, we’re there, at least for the moment. Most of our alternatives are upside scenarios—we make more if the Cardinals win than the Brewers, more if the Padres win than the Dodgers, more if the Rangers win than the Astros—so even with a few liabilities (Blue Jays, Guardians, kind of the Yankees), this is a happy place for us to call our position fine and focus on higher value.
Pick: Minnesota to win –260. Medium confidence.
World Series
That higher value? Right now we’re seeing it on the Giants and the Diamondbacks.
The Giants and the Diamondbacks are linked. They’re competing for the same playoff spots, and while their presence isn’t mutually exclusive, it also isn’t independent. At the moment, FanGraphs has the Giants 38.2% likely to make the playoffs and the Diamondbacks 46.0% likely. At a minimum, that leaves a two-in-three chance one of the two makes the field. With value what it is, we’re happy to amass a lot of value on them as a pair, knowing one of the two probably won’t make it. With this play in, we net 92 and 120 units on them in the NLCS market, respectively (ARZ, SF), and 270 and 284 on them in the World Series market. That’s leverage.
Pick: San Francisco to win +9000. Medium confidence.
Western Conference (NBA)
The Heat did huge, huge work for us last night (we net at least 54 units on the campaign, as our futures stand, if the Heat win it all), but while that gives us a lot of leverage out of which to hedge, we aren’t going to hedge right now. Tomorrow? Maybe, but for tonight, we’re still looking for value, and we’re seeing it on the Nuggets over the Lakers.
The Lakers are a good, good team, and they should give the Nuggets a tough time tonight. But the Nuggets are still the favorites to get out of Denver with a 2–0 lead, and they’re favored for a reason: They’re the better team, playing at home. A lot went right for the Nuggets in Game 1, but a lot went right for the Lakers as well. We like Denver to get this second game. We’ll figure out the Eastern Conference stuff tomorrow.
Pick: Denver to win –250. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
We’re becoming very heavy on the Panthers and Knights and not the Hurricanes and Stars. It’s getting binary for us in each conference, and?
And we’re ok with that.
We like the probability of the Panthers stealing one game in Raleigh. After that, we can reassess. In the West, we’re lopsided but not horrifically so thanks to that one future we have on the Stars to win it all at 14-to-1. Go Panthers, Go Knights, but really we only are in desperate need on the Eastern Conference side.
Pick: Vegas to win +250. Low confidence.
