Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,369 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 40–41 so far, down 5.71 units. We started poorly, we rallied, and we went cold again. We pivoted a little last week, and results have been narrowly profitable since. Hopefully that’s a sign of good things to come, but it’s never good when you say “hopefully” about a betting market.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.79 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down one unit so far.
New York (AL) @ Minnesota
Losing two Twins bets in a row does have us nervous here, but Joe Ryan has been so good, and it’s a getaway day for the Yankees. Minnesota’s a good team. We won’t let two losses shake us.
Pick: Minnesota to win –120. Low confidence.
Oakland @ Houston
Cristian Javier’s return from the IL Saturday went very, very badly. Four outs, none by strikeout, while allowing two home runs and walking four batters. He might be fine. But this is a pretty good price against a guy who might not be.
Pick: Oakland to win +182. Low confidence. (Estes and Javier must start.)
Cincinnati @ Los Angeles
Brent Suter and Nick Martinez, the Reds’ expected opener and bulk reliever, are both outperforming expectations so far. So is Tyler Glasnow. With a guy like this, so good and so frequently injured, you have to enjoy him while he’s here.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –315. Low confidence. (Suter and Glasnow must start.)
NL West
We’re going boring again today. There’s still positive value available on the Dodgers, and we don’t know when it’ll come back.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –1400. Medium confidence. x2
NBA Finals
Boring here, too. We do think the Nuggets are the most likely Western Conference champion, but in the event they aren’t (we’re specifically worried about the Mavericks, on whom we have very few units), this price will age really well for us. The value’s there now, too, thanks to that slight possibility Boston loses to the Knicks or the Pacers.
Pick: Boston to win –125. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
Will the Rangers finish off the Hurricanes tonight? Probably not. But they’re still the series favorites here. The market’s cheating a little too far towards the scenario where they lose Game 6.
Pick: NY Rangers to win +525. Low confidence.
