Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,840 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Gelo missed its under again yesterday, and while it’s still positive on totals on the postseason, we’re going to pivot and try moneylines today after the recent run of over/under losses. More futures as well, both in the NHL and Major League Baseball (for context on these portfolios at large: our NHL bankroll is 100 units, with another 100 in reserve; our MLB bankroll is 520 units, with another 520 in reserve).
Minnesota @ St. Louis
Gelo likes this next one more, but it does like the Blues relative to how the market feels, and this gives us a higher probability of holding roughly even, though it does add some additional risk. As we’ve said all along, Gelo’s in the testing phase.
Pick: St. Louis to win -112. Low confidence.
Edmonton @ Los Angeles
One explanation for some of Gelo’s separations from the market is that it’s lower on the better team. Another, though, is that it underestimates home-ice advantage, using the same formula in the playoffs it does in the regular season. The two can look similar, especially since the better team hosts more games in the playoffs through home-ice advantage.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +120. Low confidence.
Western Conference
The deal with our Western Conference futures is that we have a unit down each already on the Blues (8-to-1), the Wild (8-to-1), the Oilers (11-to-1), and the Kings (33-to-1). We have nothing on the Stars or Avalanche, which may lead us to some hedging early next week. Since we’re still seeing value on the four teams we’re in on already, the route we’d prefer to take is to try to build our base on these four higher, and the Blues are looking especially valuable right now, narrowly favored to clinch the series tonight. Our ideal case would be for the Blues and Kings to both win, giving us a 15.5-unit profit scenario with the Blues winning the West and a 29-unit profit scenario with the Kings winning the West. Hopefully at least one clinches tonight. Otherwise, at least we’ve likely got value on the Wild and Oilers tomorrow.
Pick: St. Louis to win +850. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
There are a few options for new Stanley Cup futures for our portfolio, with the Penguins among the most valuable and the most probable to actually do it. So, though we’re already somewhat heavy on the Penguins, we’ll ride them again here.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +2000. Low confidence.
NLCS
There’s value on a new team, and we’re going to jump on it. The Giants are the NL’s fifth-likeliest playoff team, per FanGraphs, and the gap between their projected win total and that of the seventh-likeliest playoff team is five games right now. In other words, they’re not a locked-in playoff team, but they’ve got a five-game cushion in the current projections, and with their pitching staff what it is, they should be hard to beat in a three, five, or seven-game series.
Pick: San Francisco to win +1100. Medium confidence.
World Series
Same story here, where what’s probably happened is that the market is reacting slowly to what’s been a pretty meaningful five-game winning streak.
Pick: San Francisco to win +2200. Medium confidence.
