Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,877 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
All four markets today. Here’s what to know on each.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 27–15, we’re up 9.78 units, we’re up 23% (the average line on our winners has been –109). We got the win yesterday, and we’re trying to build off that to make this a good week.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 4.74 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.29 units so far.
San Francisco @ Arizona
Alex Cobb has been great this season, but Tommy Henry has been good, and at these odds, good is going to have to play. We don’t love that Andrew Chafin threw across multiple innings last night. If he pitches, we don’t expect him to be his best self. (As a pitcher, we mean. We assume he’ll still be a joy of a human being.) But with only six games on the board today, our best options are this, the A’s, and the Reds. We’ll take this.
Pick: Arizona to win +128. Low confidence. (Cobb and Henry must start.)
NL West
We’re finally seeing value on the Dodgers somewhere, and it’s narrow, but we always take value on new teams when we see it, and we especially take it on favorites.
I didn’t think the Dodgers would win the division this year, and while it’s still up in the air, they’ve looked great so far. This team *is* rebuilding, but it speaks to how well this franchise has been run that a rebuild looks like this. They’re on a 98-win pace. They’re rebuilding and they’re on a 98-win pace.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –140. Medium confidence.
World Series
Other fresh value, though this is only market-specific, is on the Red Sox. We had them in the AL East and the ALCS, now we have them in the World Series market as well. We love it. It’s mid-May, they’re in playoff position, and FanGraphs is giving them a three-in-eight shot to stay there. Reports of their demise, etc.
Pick: Boston to win +6600. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
It’s a little scary to have five of our 23 live units out on the Heat, but our alternatives are doubling down on the Nuggets, doubling down on the Sixers, and hedging. Hedging at this point would be chasing ghosts, and the Heat are in the most advantageous immediate spot, meaning their odds are likeliest to shorten over the next two nights. Jimmy Butler forever.
Pick: Miami to win +1800. Low confidence.
Eastern Conference
We’re heavily invested in the Panthers, and we said yesterday that it might be good for us if they lost Game 4, because it’d give us another opportunity to buy in on them at a lower price than they’ll sit at entering next series, should they reach it. Well, they lost, and we’re going to have to stick to our word. We’re still out-leveraged in the Eastern Conference—if the Panthers do get past the Leafs, we stand to only gain 6.3 units if they then get past the Hurricanes or Devils, while we’d lose 7.0 units if they were to lose to the Leafs or Canes and 4.25 should they lose to the Devils—but this gets us closer to a hedgeable position without hedging right now.
Pick: Florida to win +150. Low confidence.
