Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,932 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We’ve got a game tonight, so Gelo’s going to address that and then hit up the futures. For futures context: The NHL portfolio started with 100 units, with 100 more units in reserve in case we need them to hedge. The MLB portfolio started with 520 units, with 520 more units in reserve in case we need them to hedge.
Tampa Bay @ New York Rangers
Gelo likes the value on the Rangers, Gelo likes the value on the over. It didn’t work in the Tampa Bay games, but it worked great in the earlier New York part of the series.
Pick: New York Rangers to win +107. Low confidence.
Pick: Over 5.5 (+118). Low confidence.
Eastern Conference
As we said yesterday, we aren’t in great shape here, and as we game out future scenarios, we don’t love what we find. Basically, our best options for hedges going forward are either to surrender and minimize loss or to place a series of single-game moneyline bets that would damage our upside while possibly causing our downside to only stagnate.
The problem with gaming this all out is that while we have a general idea of what the odds will be for games after today, we don’t know them exactly, and to make matters worse there are 16 scenarios to look at through Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals alone (Rangers win in 6, Rangers win in 7, Lightning win in 6, Lightning win in 7; then either the Avalanche win both games in Denver, the Avalanche win the first and lose the second, the Avalanche lose the first and win the second, or the Avalanche lose both).
What we did, then, entering today, is look at what’s valuable and look at what the worst case could be with this bet. The value here lies on the Rangers to win the series. They’ve won both games at home, the Lightning looked good in Game 4 but it was the first game they dominated all series, Gelo likes the Rangers as a 50/50 bet to win tonight and Gelo’s track record is decent if not actively good. From there, the worst case is that the Lightning win Game 5. If the Lightning do win tonight, we’ll probably hedge by betting them on the moneyline to win Game 6. From there, the worst case is that the Rangers win Game 6 and send the series back to New York. Should that happen, our hedge would probably be a larger one on the Lightning to win Game 7. Whoever wins that, we’d be in a situation with less to gain from the underdog winning than we have to lose on the favorite winning, which is not where you want to be. But. In looking at our presumptive hedging strategy from there, we could actually get to reasonably good shape across those first two games in Denver with hedges on the Colorado moneyline in each game. They’d be especially good should either team lead 2-0—the worst worst-case is that the series is 1-1, we have a narrow bankroll, and as said, our liability has held the same while our upside has diminished. But that happening requires 1) this series to go seven games, which is 50% likely at best, and then 2) the Finals to start 1-1, which is also 50% likely at best. A 25% possibility of the worst case is big, but it’s likely smaller than that in actuality, and at the end of the day, this is why they call it gambling. The worst we’ve ever done on a concerted futures portfolio effort is a 25% loss (2020 MLB—damn those top seeds winning). Even in the worst worst-case, we have the resources to hedge back to that.
Ten units on the Rangers to win the series. New scenarios as follows, with 74.1 units in the bankroll and a minimum of 15.04 coming back our way when this series goes final.
| Winner | Loser | Final Net Units |
| Rangers | Avalanche | 159.68 |
| Lightning | Avalanche | 66.24 |
| Avalanche | Rangers | -75.07 |
| Avalanche | Lightning | -110.86 |
Pick: New York Rangers to win +145. Low confidence. x10
AL West
This doesn’t offer much upside, but with the other corners of our portfolio more or less in a great spot, building up the division side helps, and this does build up the division side. We’re trying to insure against a scenario where the Cardinals, White Sox, and Dodgers each win their division, and this is a better way to do it than hedging because there’s actually value here.
Pick: Houston to win -775. Medium confidence.
Pick: Houston to win -775. Medium confidence.
