Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,966 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Just the two markets again, as we continue to bide our time with the NHL and NBA portfolios. If the Knights and Heat both win their series, our all-time balance will be +0.08 units, bringing us back profitable overall for the first time in more than a year. So, we aren’t going to mess with that possibility, especially with the most likely scenario—the Knights and Nuggets winning—a profitable one for us from here.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 40–30, we’re up 4.74 units, we’re up 7% (the average line on our winners has been –115). April was great, May was bad, June is young.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
Chicago (NL) @ Anaheim
We’ve lost twice recently betting on the Angels, but in one of those, they were an underdog, and we’re 1–2 on them on the year, hardly a damning mark. What’s going on here is that Reid Detmers has a great FIP (3.62) and a fine xERA (4.48) while Drew Smyly’s early-season dominance is still getting him more credit in the market than what he’s probably worth. He’s got the 3.80 season-long FIP, but it’s just 4.23 over the second half of his season so far, and it’s 4.92 over his most recent quarter of starts. It’s no fun to bet against my favorite team, but on the year, it’s been a winning strategy, netting us 0.99 units over four bets.
Pick: Anaheim to win –126. Low confidence. (Smyly and Detmers must start.)
ALCS
There’s value on the Guardians today, and it’s the first time all year. The value is narrow—this has a 0.1% eROI, per FanGraphs, which is within the margin of rounding error—but with the Guards the team we’re most afraid of in the division markets (they and the Royals are tied for our worst-case winner in any division, and they are nearly infinitely more likely than the Royals to win a division), getting something on them somewhere helps the cause.
Pick: Cleveland to win +4500. Medium confidence.
NL Central
Another low-value one here, but it’s still positive, and it puts us back into a spot where if all six market favorites win their divisions, we profit. We like being in that spot, and with so much leverage from our Cardinals, Cubs, and Pirates upside, we’d love to keep going back to this if it remains an option.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –135. Medium confidence.
