Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,444 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 57–56 so far, down 6.16 units. It’s been a terrible performance, one in which every sign of progress has been met with a swift comedown. That said, we’re 7–1 over the last two days.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re down 7.83 units so far, but we’re set to profit on the effort if the Celtics win the Finals.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down 22.20 units so far, but as with the NBA portfolio, we’ll profit if our portfolio’s preferred champion—in this case, the Panthers—wins.
Seattle @ Oakland
We might be too aggressive here in placing a second bet—this is our second option today, we list if first because it’s earlier chronologically—but Bryan Woo has great command, and while JP Sears has sneakily been pretty good, we have a good team playing a bad team in a series the good team really wants to win. The bad team’s highest-leverage weapon—Mason Miller—is probably unavailable after getting five high-stress outs last night. Give us the Mariners.
Pick: Seattle to win –137. Low confidence. (Woo and Sears must start.)
Boston @ Chicago (AL)
This is one where we don’t see the Red Sox losing. Tanner Houck is a Cy Young contender. The White Sox are a mess, and particularly a mess right now, with miscues all over the place even during what you’d think would be a high-focus series against the Cubs. The White Sox aren’t only bad on paper. They’re play bad baseball, too. It’s bad roster construction and bad coaching/bad leadership. A mess all around.
Pick: Boston to win –230. Low confidence. (Houck and Woodford must start.)
NL Central
The Reds have often been labeled one of the biggest disappointments of the season so far, which is a funny way for talking heads to say they got caught up in the electric way Elly De La Cruz plays baseball and were wrong about the Reds, whose projected W–L on FanGraphs is only 0.3 wins worse than it was on Opening Day. Anyway, they’re playing a little better these days, better enough to be squarely in the NL Central race. 15-to-1’s a good price.
Pick: Cincinnati to win +1500. Medium confidence.
NLCS
150-to-1 is also a good price, this time on the Pirates (who are similarly in the NL Central race) to win the NL pennant. As with yesterday’s Pirates World Series bet, this is a longshot, but someone will win the NL Central, the Brewers are flawed, and the possibility of this mediocre division sending two or even three teams to the playoffs is the highest it’s been in a little while.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +15000. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
As we approach Game 1 tonight, our portfolio is now effectively a 38.83-unit bet on the Celtics, one which pays only 5.61 units. Our hope, of course, is that Boston wins Game 1. Our plan is more nebulous. If Boston does win Game 1, we probably won’t keep doubling down on them ahead of Game 2, but the odds on the Mavericks might not be long enough to facilitate any hedging. We’ll see what tomorrow morning brings.
Pick: Boston to win –210. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
With a few days still left before Game 1 on the hockey side, our portfolio is now effectively a 57.20-unit bet on the Panthers, one which pays only 3.61 units. We’re a long way from considering any hedging here. We’d need Oilers odds at least in the 16-to-1 range, something we might not get unless the Panthers go up 3–0.
Pick: Florida to win –135. Low confidence.
