Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,900 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Great evening by Gelo, which hit on both its picks and got the result we wanted for futures. More from it for tonight (with the Avalanche, in whose games Gelo has struggled mightily), plus baseball and hockey futures. For futures context: The NHL portfolio started with 100 units, with 100 more units in reserve in case we need them to hedge. The MLB portfolio started with 520 units, with 520 more units in reserve in case we need those to hedge.
Edmonton @ Colorado
Gelo is roughly even on the postseason in single-game picks. Less than a unit below net zero. On picks on games involving the Avalanche, it’s got an average ROI of something like -50%. That does drop significantly when you limit it to totals (we’re 0-5 picking against the Avalanche on the moneyline), but still: Gelo doesn’t have a great read on this hockey team, whereas it’s cleaned up on the rest of the playoff field.
Three things that make us still comfortable making this pick:
First, it’s for content. We’re going to make a pick in this game, this is the best option available.
Second, those results on Avalanche totals are pretty solid. 3-4 record. That’s fine, and Gelo’s overall success on totals (2% average return) keeps us comfortable with it here.
Third, Gelo has a great track record in games involving the Oilers. 8% average return. Small sample on all of this, but it’s the sample we have. We’ll ride with this guy for the evening ahead.
Pick: Under 7 (+109). Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
There is not value on the Lightning right now in futures markets, at least in Gelo’s eyes, and that’s fine today but it could be a problem soon. Our goal is to make the final four scenarios in the table below either all positive or such that the two positive scenarios outweigh the negative scenarios in magnitude by a factor of two or three to one, since the Avalanche will likely be a pretty big favorite should they indeed reach the Stanley Cup Finals.
The best way for this to work out is for the Oilers to eliminate the Avalanche, but if that doesn’t happen, the second-best way is for the Rangers/Lightning series to drag on for a while, flipping back and forth as it does and offering value on each side. Right now, we’re still trying to build up Rangers-over-Avalanche as a heavy position (and there are ways to do that even more exactly, but we’re trying to avoid sacrificing Oilers upside while we still can), but ideally, we’d alternate building that up and building up Lightning-over-Avalanche. Another route, of course, is to build up our conference futures positions on the Rangers and Lightning, which lift more ships, but those are less than zero-sum, so we can only actually lift half the boats in the harbor.
Hopefully, the Oilers win tonight. If they don’t, we might be hedging tomorrow.
| Winner | Loser | Final Net Units |
| Rangers | Oilers | 73.78 |
| Lightning | Oilers | 70.72 |
| Oilers | Rangers | 39.43 |
| Oilers | Lightning | 34.37 |
| Rangers | Avalanche | 30.28 |
| Lightning | Avalanche | 27.22 |
| Avalanche | Rangers | -35.32 |
| Avalanche | Lightning | -40.38 |
Pick: New York Rangers to win +330. Low confidence.
Pick: New York Rangers to win +330. Low confidence.
NLCS
This isn’t entirely true, but to an extent, futures aren’t a bet on teams to win the specific series or title in question. To an extent, they’re a bet on teams to get close. Futures are investments in value, and while it’s best to just have that value come to fruition, you can still wring the value out if you’re in a good hedging position.
Anyway, that seems apt to point out with the Padres, a flawed but valuable team in a league with some possibly outrageous playoff rotations.
Pick: San Diego to win +800. Medium confidence.
World Series
This is probably the “safest” future you can take right now, in that it’s both valuable and probable. The Astros are beginning to run away with the AL West, they lack the circus which envelopes the Yankees, and they have the resources to make acquisitions as the season goes along, just like anyone else. They’re also not highly dependent on specific individual players to the same extent as a lot of other teams. And to go back to the point from the Padres bet, they’re almost definitely going to be in the picture. That’s worth a lot.
Pick: Houston to win +850. Medium confidence.
