Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,505 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines and futures. That is all. We’re continuing to cross our fingers and let the NHL portfolio ride.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 75–69 so far, down 5.46 units. It’s been a terrible performance, one in which every sign of progress has been met with a swift comedown. To pick a selective sample, though, we’re 26–14 over the last 16 days, and we’ve cut our deficit by roughly half over that timeframe. All other selective samples are worse.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Seattle @ Cleveland
The Mariners and Guardians are built differently from one another, but they’re easy to compare, two small-market division leaders quick to the 40-win mark. Which is better? On paper, it’s the Mariners. On the field so far this year, it’s been the Guards.
What we like here is the Castillo vs. Allen matchup. That leans in Seattle’s favor. Is it enough to outweigh home-field advantage? We think so. And we trust the on–paper piece more than the on–the–field piece on a day-to-day basis.
Pick: Seattle to win –105. Low confidence. (No starting pitcher requirements.)
NL East
It’s another double Phillies day, with the expected value still positive on these guys in this market. This makes them a profitable scenario for us within the NL East.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –325. Medium confidence. x2
