Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,959 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Just three markets today—no MLB futures due to scheduling conflicts, but we build in one weekday off a month, and you always want to take that right away.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 36–27, we’re up 4.94 units, we’re up 8% (the average line on our winners has been –113). April was great, May was bad, our late-May surge has us feeling optimistic about June.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 17.63 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.49 units so far.
Anaheim @ Houston
We liked Houston at the odds listed when Framber Valdez was still expected to start, but with the Astros pushing their rotation back a day and inserting Ronel Blanco in for tonight, these haven’t shifted by enough. Reid Detmers hasn’t been great on the season, but he has a very good FIP and his xERA isn’t bad for a starter.
Pick: Anaheim to win +132. Low confidence. (Detmers and Blanco must start.)
NBA Finals (Hedge)
We keep chugging along here, with a lot of upside remaining on the Heat and not too much downside on the Nuggets, but some. Ideally, the Heat steal Game 1 tonight and our leverage increases.
Pick: Denver to win –405. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup (Hedge)
Same story here, though we’ve almost eliminated our downside on the Panthers. So long as the odds don’t change before Game 1 on Saturday, we should enter the series with only upside on each.
Pick: Florida to win +105. Low confidence.
