Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,624 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Iowa @ Michigan State
Every one of Michigan State’s losses in this 1-3 stretch has been understandable, and one was functionally impressive. That sets the stage for Sparty to bounce back at home.
Pick: Michigan State -2 (-110). Low confidence.
Portland @ Loyola Marymount
Will LMU have a major letdown in their first game since upsetting Gonzaga? The market seems to think so, and frankly, that’s a little disrespectful to LMU. These guys aren’t middle schoolers. They beat Portland by twenty a month ago in Portland, and that wasn’t a shocking result. They’re the better team, and they should put it in the hoop a whole lot, hopefully with a healthy crowd at their back.
Pick: Loyola Marymount -5.5 (-110). Low confidence.
