Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,608 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Rutgers @ Michigan State
The idea behind this is that Michigan State is going to do what it takes to get into the Big Ten race without actually being a good team. Some record reversion to the mean, which in this case will be 5-3. And if you don’t think Sparty’s getting the calls tonight in East Lansing, I’m not sure we have the same impression of the Big Ten.
Pick: Michigan State -3 (-105). Low confidence.
Michigan @ Maryland
The idea behind this one is that Maryland has beaten Illinois and Ohio State in its home conference games so far, while Michigan’s road games have been a win against Minnesota and losses to Michigan State and Iowa. We’re banking on that being a pattern.
Pick: Maryland -3 (-110). Low confidence.
Washington State @ Utah
The idea behind this one is that when Washington State loses, it often lays eggs, which is something of a product of the Kyle Smith approach (which we support, for the record). We see Utah bouncing back tonight after a rough weekend in Los Angeles.
Pick: Utah -3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
