Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 395 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Minnesota @ Miami
Jordan Yamamoto keeps getting outs.
While his last two outings haven’t been positive (eight combined innings, eleven combined earned runs), his MLB (both career and season) sample size is up to a reasonable 42 innings over eight starts, and his FIP’s still at 3.98. It isn’t excellent, but it’s good, and while the narrative that teams have “figured him out” is easy to write and might be true, the sudden change in results could just as easily be attributed to facing the gnashing teeth that is the Dodgers offense and having one bad inning against the Diamondbacks.
In short, Yamamoto’s 3.98 FIP probably isn’t too far from his true ability right now.
Pick: Miami +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Houston @ Cleveland
Danny Salazar returns to the mound for Cleveland today, making his first start since 2017 after missing all of last year and over half this year with a shoulder injury. He’s made six rehab outings, but he’ll still be on roughly a 70-pitch limit.
It’s hard to say what to expect from a guy after such a long hiatus, but it’s worth noting Salazar has never posted a FIP above four over an entire season. This could be a big addition for the suddenly Bauer-less Cleveland rotation.
Pick: Cleveland +1.5 (+110). Low confidence.
San Diego @ Los Angeles
Padres sophomore pitcher Joey Lucchesi is not particularly notable. He doesn’t strike out all that many batters, or walk all that many, or display any particularly interesting splits. He doesn’t throw particularly hard or have a particularly notable array of off-speed stuff. He wasn’t a landmark prospect. He isn’t a landmark pitcher.
But for the most part, he limits quality contact, and he’s 30th in the MLB in FIP among pitchers with 100 or more innings. He gives his team a chance to win, and figures to continue to do so for San Diego for quite a while.
Pick: San Diego +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
