Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,828 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
We’re active in four markets today. Here’s the context on each.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
On single game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 13–8, we’re up 4.10 units, we’re up 20% (the average line on our winners has been –107). That 20% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been a nice few weeks.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.29 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge.
AL Central
We’re doubling up today, putting both our plays on the Twins to win the Central. This is partially a reaction to yesterday—we got the Tigers at long, long odds yesterday, so we have to put two on the Twins to make them a profitable route within this division—but it also echoes a theme of the season so far, which is that the Twins are undervalued. It could be that this is due to perceptions of injury risk, and perhaps those will prove prescient. That’s a stretch, though, and with a team this likely to make the playoffs, we like having plenty on them.
Pick: Minnesota to win -115. Medium confidence. x2
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
For the single-game pick, we’re going with a bigger favorite than usual, and while FanGraphs isn’t telling us it’s a positive-value play, FanGraphs has been undervaluing favorites a little lately, systematically or coincidentally.
Roansy Contreras has been hit around a little this year, but his FIP’s still good, and his xERA isn’t quite terrible. Most of the ERA damage came from one rough start against the Astros, and while that was also his home start of the season, we default to not attributing too much to location when the sample size is one game. We like the Pirates to start the four-game set with a win, and to extend their winning streak to four games.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win -161. Low confidence.
First Round: Sacramento vs. Golden State
We’re doubling down on the Warriors to win this series, even down 2–0. There isn’t much value in windows where we feel comfortable unless we go with the Grizzlies, and we’d rather wait for as much information on Ja Morant’s wrist as we can get before making that move. Instead, we’ll put ourselves behind the Warriors. The market seems to be handing this series to the Kings, but we don’t expect a team that’s had this much success to hand it over themselves. We think tonight’s a battle the Warriors win. We’ll reassess after that if we get the chance.
Pick: Golden State to win +155. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
Gelo really likes the value on the Oilers and the Kraken today. We’re picking the Oilers between those two for two reasons:
First, we have something down on the Kings to eliminate the Oilers, making this allow us to have it both ways a little on that series.
Second, the Kraken winning tonight would help the Oilers’ probability of winning the Cup, because it would push the Avalanche that much closer to elimination. In a way, this is a bet on the Kraken through a different channel.
Pick: Edmonton to win +900. Low confidence.
