We won with another MLB underdog yesterday, bringing us almost to even on the week after a disastrous first five days. On the NHL front, we hit our Stars first round futures, but on the NBA front, we lost yet another series, this time with the Clippers. Last: No dice on the Kentucky Derby.
Today we’ve got more MLB, more NHL, more NBA, and all three of the motorsports we follow. Cross your fingers with us, and let’s begin.
Minnesota at Boston
Our approach is pointing us towards a favorite, which is rare these days. It’s hard to dislike much about the Red Sox here. Garrett Crochet’s been good. Chris Paddack’s been bad. The bullpen freshness is comparable. I think the only concern is rain moving in late, but given how much of the imbalance comes from starting pitching, that shouldn’t really hurt Boston.
Pick: Boston to win –187. 15.00 units to win 8.02. Paddack and Crochet must start.
Stanley Cup
The Jets are in disarray. Our model really likes the Jets. (To be fair, it likes the Blues too. This is about the rest of the Western Conference.)
We’re on board with the idea that there’s value here. We don’t know that there’s as much as our model says, but Winnipeg should win tonight, and Winnipeg gets home-ice advantage in the second round, and it’s not like Dallas is going to have a huge rest advantage. The Stars are tough, but we don’t know that the Jets aren’t.
Pick: Winnipeg to win +1600. 2.00 units to win 32.00.
Second Round: Cleveland vs. Indiana
We’re not adding anything more on the Warriors today (we’re down 12 units on the first round so far, with 8 units outstanding on the Warriors which would pay 4.51). We’ve got enough there given the probability.
We are taking another longshot. We don’t love doing this, and we do want to circle the wagons more around the Celtics and Thunder, but the value appears real. The Cavs are the better team, but this price overstates by how much.
Pick: Indiana to win series +396. 2.00 units to win 7.92.
Würth 400 (NASCAR Cup Series at Texas)
Over in NASCAR, it’s hard to say who’s been best on intermediate tracks so far. During qualifying this weekend, it was definitely Chevrolet. Who’s a good Chevrolet driver who qualified poorly? Kyle Busch.
Pick: Kyle Busch to finish top ten +125. 3.00 units to win 3.75.
Children’s of Alabama Indy Grand Prix (IndyCar at Birmingham)
Scott McLaughlin’s going for a three-peat at Barber Motorsports Park, but he’s starting second to Álex Palou, who’s generally better than McLaughlin on road courses. One of McLaughlin’s wins here did come from the pole, but the other came while starting fourth, with Palou among those ahead of him on the grid. Between that and the size of the price gap, we think McLaughlin offers better value.
Pick: Scott McLaughlin to win +275. 3.00 units to win 8.25.
Miami Grand Prix (Formula 1)
It’s a tougher question in F1. Miami’s not a terrible place for passing, it turns out. Ultimately, we don’t really trust Lando Norris, and the Antonelli odds are too long for what we’re trying to do (which is avoid a steady motorsports drain on our account like what we did in 2022).
Pick: Max Verstappen to win +160. 3.00 units to win 4.80.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –174.21 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 317 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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