The Celtics’ loss isn’t great for our NBA futures portfolio, but we knew they’d probably lose that series once they went down 3–1. The Leafs’ win is big for the NHL portfolio. That gives us a chance.
More NBA and NHL futures today, plus our daily MLB moneyline. MLB futures are off for the weekend.
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
We’ve lost two in a row, so we’re in retreat today. FanGraphs has the Cubs a bigger favorite than the Phillies today, but we think that would change if the Pirates’ lineup was already out.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –290. 15.00 units to win 5.17. Mlodzinski and Wheeler must start.
NBA Finals
We do have some doubts about Oklahoma City closing out this series against the Nuggets. We’re surprised the Game 7 Experience narrative isn’t getting more run. If the Thunder do finish off Denver, they should be the odds-on favorite to win it all. They’re really good, and no one else is really good. They have a matchup problem with Minnesota but Minnesota has matchup problems with them.
We’re going to do this slowly and cautiously, but we’re going to try to get the OKC over New York scenario (currently our worst) to profitable. We think we can get all scenarios profitable pretty early in the Conference Finals.
Pick: Oklahoma City to win +130. 2.00 units to win 2.60.
Stanley Cup
More on Edmonton today as we wait and see if our heavily Jets/Leafs portfolio can withstand this round. The Oilers are now a profitable Cup outcome for us, so that’s nice. I’m guessing our model would see a lot of value on the Panthers against the Hurricanes, too.
Pick: Edmonton to win +240. 2.00 units to win 4.80.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –222.86 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 334 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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