Do we regret yesterday’s IndyCar play? Not really. But we do apologize. Yikes.
More MLB moneyline action today, our weekday MLB futures, the Rockies, and our daily NBA and NHL playoff futures.
Anaheim at New York (AL)
We’ve lost two moneylines in a row, which means today’s about stopping the bleeding. FanGraphs has the Mariners as the biggest favorite tonight, but even with the Red Sox flying to Seattle without Rafael Devers, Logan Gilbert coming off the IL is too uncertain a bet. We’re paying a high premium here, but this is a game the Yankees should handle, even coming off a sweep at the hand of those beleaguered rivals.
Pick: New York to win –184. 15.00 units to win 8.15. Soriano and Schmidt must start.
Colorado at Washington
This is the week that might make or break our embrace of the anti-Rockies run line approach. Four games in Washington followed by three back in Denver against the D-Backs. I don’t expect the Rockies to be favored +1.5 in all seven, but the leverage is going to be higher than it’s been.
Pick: Washington –1.5 (+120). 15.00 units to win 18.00.
NL West
We’re not thrilled to keep betting this short of prices, but the value is positive (per FanGraphs) and we continue to see a lack of value elsewhere in markets. I’m wondering if others made better use than we did of the Tigers’ brief 150-to-1 ALCS status last year and left sportsbooks cautious on MLB futures?
Pick: Los Angeles to win –600. 4.00 units to win 0.67.
NBA Finals
I don’t think tonight’s moneyline’s changed by much, but even if it has, it hasn’t changed by enough to make up the gap between what these series odds should be, based on that moneyline, and what they are. Meanwhile, these series odds have moved even more towards the Pacers. As we’ve been saying, we’re guessing sportsbooks have some pretty large Pacers liabilities.
The new scenarios for our 200-unit portfolio, which enters Game 5 up 73.7 units:
| Winner | Games | Total |
| Thunder | 6 | 105.58 |
| Pacers | 6 | 65.87 |
| Thunder | 7 | 52.4 |
| Pacers | 7 | 12.69 |
Pick: Oklahoma City to win –480. 17.00 units to win 3.54.
Stanley Cup Finals
Nothing new between the market and our model today. Seven more Panthers units leave us with 28.69 units to play with, a 42.31-unit deficit, and the following scenarios for our final portfolio loss, given what we’ve bet so far. We’ll game out some scenarios tomorrow as we decide whether to empty the chamber or keep some of those 28.69 units dry.
| Result | Probability | Total |
| Panthers in 6 | 56.6% | -6.31 |
| Oilers in 7 | 24.3% | -46.33 |
| Panthers in 7 | 19.1% | -127.05 |
Pick: Florida to win –340. 7.00 units to win 2.06.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –302.27 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 384 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
