Do we need to stop betting against the Rockies?
More MLB moneyline action today, more Rockies, our weekday MLB futures, and our daily NBA and NHL playoff futures.
Tampa Bay at New York (NL)
There are a lot of little things going on here, but something tangential that’s curious: For all the talk about the A’s purported home-field disadvantage, there hasn’t been much focus on the Rays, who are also playing in someone else’s minor league stadium. They’ve only played 25 games on the road so far. This is a little tongue in cheek, but what if they’re really good away from home and the samples been too small (and the home results too solid) for anyone to notice?
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +158. 15.00 units to win 23.70. Bradley and Holmes must start.
Colorado at Atlanta
A real debacle from the Giants yesterday, but paradoxically, it’s the kind of result we shouldn’t make too much of. It was so painful because it was so unlikely. It was an outlier.
Betting blindly against the Rockies on the run line isn’t going well. We’re not going to sugarcoat that. But yesterday, for as ugly as it was, was not the kind of thing that’s especially indicative of future results. The Rockies are still historically bad. They’re on a 31-win pace. Maybe the market’s caught up to that, but a 60% implied probability against a 68% season-to-date record has us still thinking this angle might exist.
Pick: Atlanta –1.5 (–150). 15.00 units to win 10.00.
World Series
More on the New York teams today. Hopefully next week the markets shake themselves up a little.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +550. 2.00 units to win 11.00.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +1000. 2.00 units to win 20.00.
NBA Finals
We outlined yesterday why the odds don’t match up between the series as a whole and the moneyline tonight. Since then, markets have moved even further towards the Thunder to win Game 4.
We do think markets are overvaluing the Thunder tonight. But that still leaves a lot of room for the Thunder to be undervalued over the rest of the series.
New portfolio scenarios:
| Winner | Games | Total |
| Pacers | 6 | 116.88 |
| Pacers | 5 | 99.28 |
| Thunder | 6 | 94.05 |
| Pacers | 7 | 63.69 |
| Thunder | 7 | 40.86 |
Pick: Oklahoma City to win series –200. 15.00 units to win 7.50.
Stanley Cup Finals
We don’t really need our model for this one. Markets imply a 47% chance the Panthers win Game 5. For this price to be positive EV, then, the Panthers need only a 54% chance or better of winning Game 6, which will be played in Florida. Those probabilities aren’t independent, but if anything, the Panthers are more likely to win Game 6 if they win Game 5.
New scenarios, one of which remains terrible:
| Result | Probability | Total |
| Oilers in 6 | 27.3% | 28.41 |
| Oilers in 7 | 26.3% | -26.33 |
| Panthers in 6 | 25.0% | -28.37 |
| Panthers in 7 | 21.5% | -125.11 |
Pick: Florida –1.5 games (+300). 6.00 units to win 18.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –305.62 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 376 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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