Another bad MLB day yesterday, but the Oilers came back and came through, keeping our NHL portfolio in a solid spot.
More MLB moneyline action today, plus our weekday MLB futures and our daily NBA and NHL playoff futures. The Rockies are off today.
Cleveland at New York (AL)
We were excited about Slade Cecconi, but early results on his Cleveland tenure have been mixed. Mixed enough that as we try to end this little losing streak, we feel comfortable with a very expensive price on the Yankees.
Pick: New York to win –265. 15.00 units to win 5.66. Cecconi and Fried must start.
ALCS
This is the best value play we’re seeing today, using FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds. Without much down on the Rays already, it makes sense for the portfolio.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +3000. 2.00 units to win 60.00.
World Series
For all the justified concern over the Yankees’ oft-injured stars, markets sure seem to think the Dodgers will make it to October without dismembering every arm in their rotation.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +550. 2.00 units to win 11.00.
NBA Finals
We’re running this one back. We’d really like the Pacers win tonight. Mostly because we have those Game 1 plays on them, but also because it’d almost guarantee us wins on these eight units and yesterday’s.
New scenarios for the portfolio as a whole:
| Winner | G1 Winner | Games | Total |
| Thunder | Pacers | Over 5.5 | 85.44 |
| Thunder | Pacers | 5 | 67.84 |
| Pacers | Pacers | Over 5.5 | 64.34 |
| Pacers | Pacers | 5 | 46.74 |
| Pacers | Pacers | 4 | 27.18 |
| Thunder | Thunder | Over 5.5 | 18.24 |
| Thunder | Thunder | 5 | 0.64 |
| Pacers | Thunder | Over 5.5 | -2.86 |
| Thunder | Thunder | 4 | -18.92 |
| Pacers | Thunder | 5 | -20.46 |
Pick: Over 4.5 games –450. 8.00 units to win 1.78.
Stanley Cup
Big win for us last night, given we’re not only Oilers-heavy but also had a specific play on the Oilers to win Game 1.
With last night so close, our model is more hesitant about a short series than it was entering the series. We’ll lay off that angle, then, and play the Oilers overall again. I’m surprised the Panthers aren’t closer to 2-to-1.
Here are the new portfolio scenarios.
| Winner | Games | Total |
| Oilers | Under 5.5 | 47.59 |
| Oilers | 6 | 19.84 |
| Oilers | Over 6.5 | 12.67 |
| Panthers | Under 5.5 | -42.19 |
| Panthers | 6 | -69.94 |
| Panthers | Over 6.5 | -77.11 |
Pick: Edmonton to win –210. 6.00 units to win 2.86.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –366.09 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 362 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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