Good things that happened last night: The Nationals won. Bad things that happened: The Oilers lost, and the Rockies used an opener on a night when our run line against them was tied to starting pitchers.
More MLB moneyline action today, our anti-Rockies run line, and our daily NBA and NHL playoff futures.
Baltimore at Sacramento
There’s been a lot of talk about both the Orioles and A’s being both hot and cold. The Orioles were cold and now are ostensibly getting hot. The A’s were hot and then got very cold.
There’s a temptation to either ride these waves or stay away from these kinds of teams—as we’d recommend staying away from the Rockies, for example, who defy mathematics. Neither of these teams, though, is defying mathematics. The Orioles have thin pitching. The A’s have a weird home-field situation (although not so weird that we fully believe it’s a disadvantage, as some are claiming). Mostly, they’ve both just dealt with a lot of injuries. Respectively, these teams are only seven and six wins off FanGraphs’s preseason expected pace. That’s a little bad, but it’s not significant after you account for how much value they’ve had sidelined.
We trust the FanGraphs model on both these teams. That leads us to Luis Severino and Sacramento tonight.
Pick: Sacramento to win +112. 15.00 units to win 16.80. Morton and Severino must start.
New York (NL) at Colorado
No starting pitcher requirement on this. To be transparent: We use those with the moneylines because the sportsbooks with the best MLB odds are often the ones who’ll change the odds if the starting pitchers change, unless you lock it in. We’d prefer the odds just be locked in, especially for published bets like these where we don’t want to monitor the matchup all day and go in and adjust the listed payout.
With run lines, it’s more 50/50 on which kind of book has the better odds. In at least our experience, run lines have a larger average vig, with books who post low-vig moneylines posting normal-vig run lines.
Pick: New York –1.5 (–185). 15.00 units to win 8.11.
NBA Finals
Evidently our explanation yesterday of why we’re betting the Pacers wasn’t rousing enough for markets to join us. Their odds are longer this afternoon. We’ll add a little more today, then check back on the series length markets tomorrow before Game 3.
New total portfolio scenarios. We’re up 57.18 units so far, so the Thunder winning in five games would involve us losing a few units from where we stand right now.
| Winner | Games | Total |
| Pacers | 6 or 7 | 129.26 |
| Pacers | 5 | 111.66 |
| Pacers | 4 | 92.1 |
| Thunder | 6 or 7 | 61.44 |
| Thunder | 5 | 43.84 |
Pick: Indiana to win +278. 12.00 units to win 33.36.
Stanley Cup
Our model agrees with markets that this series is now a tossup, though instead of having the Panthers slightly favored, it has things exactly at 50.0% in each direction. Where it still differs is its doubt that this series will go seven games. Today, that creates an opportunity for us to get some units on Florida, albeit at the cost of creating even more downside for our portfolio if the Panthers win in seven.
New total portfolio scenarios. We’re down 32.31 units so far, so the Panthers winning in five wouldn’t be much of an additional loss, but the Panthers winning in six and especially seven would be.
| Result | Probability | Total |
| Oilers in 5 | 14.1% | 44.59 |
| Oilers in 6 | 17.3% | 16.84 |
| Oilers in 7 | 18.7% | 9.67 |
| Panthers in 5 | 14.8% | -36.19 |
| Panthers in 6 | 20.1% | -63.94 |
| Panthers in 7 | 15.2% | -89.11 |
Pick: Florida –1.5 games (+200). 6.00 units to win 12.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –293.33 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 365 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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