I thought the Pirates were going to do it again for us.
Another MLB moneyline today, today’s playoff basketball and hockey futures, and a little bit of NASCAR. For the moms, of course.
St. Louis at Washington
There are two issues with this: First, the Cardinals are scalding hot, winners of seven straight. Second, the expected value is negative using FanGraphs’s probabilities, which is what we use. Unfortunately, nothing meets our criteria today, and the expected value is close enough to positive that if we treat Ryan Helsley as unavailable following yesterday’s 22-pitch outing, it flips to narrowly positive. Is Helsley really going to be unavailable? No. But part of why we treat bullpen fatigue the way we do is the “fatigue” part of the equation. Helsley will probably be available if the Cardinals need him, but he might not be as effective.
This is a stretch. Helsley is good enough that he’s not going to drop to replacement level based on fatigue alone. But any play today would be a stretch. This is the least stretchy we can offer.
Pick: Washington to win –136. 15.00 units to win 11.03. Mikolas and Gore must start.
Second Round: Oklahoma City vs. Denver
The Nuggets lead this series 2–1, play Game 4 at home, and have a clear matchup edge when it comes to rebounding. There’s no conspiratorial incentive for the NBA to support the Thunder. Denver’s rightfully an underdog, but this is valuable.
Pick: Denver to win series +189. 2.00 units to win 3.78.
Stanley Cup
Nothing too new here. Our model likes the Leafs and Jets, and our portfolio has more on the Jets than the Leafs.
Pick: Toronto to win +600. 2.00 units to win 12.00.
AdventHealth 400 (NASCAR Cup Series at Kansas)
We’re going with a little bit of a longshot today, and the rationale is this: Josh Berry’s done just as much this year as these guys, if not more. With Buescher and Wallace, previous Kansas success is probably overhyped. With Gibbs, the previous Kansas success of his pseudo-teammates (Gibbs races for Joe Gibbs Racing, 23XI’s another Toyota team and has done well at Kansas) is probably overhyped. Give us the good guy. Not that Buescher and Wallace are bad guys.
Pick: Josh Berry to beat Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace, and Ty Gibbs (+450). 3.00 units to win 13.50.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –197.43 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 328 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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