Nothing builds anticipation for Game 3 of the NBA Finals like being reminded it’s about to happen after another one hundred days of rest.
More MLB moneyline action today, more Rockies, our weekday MLB futures, and our daily NBA and NHL playoff futures.
Cincinnati at Cleveland
The Reds have won five in a row. Have they figured it out?
Clearly, we’re unconvinced. A mediocre team has played some solid baseball. A good pitcher hasn’t pitched quite as well as his ERA. A decent pitcher is backed by home-field advantage.
We think this favors the Guardians. Especially at plus-money odds.
Pick: Cleveland to win +109. 15.00 units to win 16.35. Lodolo and Allen must start.
San Francisco at Colorado
It’s very possible we jumped on this trend at the exact wrong time. We’ve lost 59.81 units on this play, or almost four days of it. Still, that 68% season-to-date win rate is enticing. Especially when the Rockies do things like they did in the late innings last night.
Pick: San Francisco –1.5 (–135). 15.00 units to win 11.11.
NL East
More of the same flavor here as the last few days. The market’s slow to react to the Phillies losing last night.
Pick: New York (NL) to win –225. 4.00 units to win 1.78.
NBA Finals
One more day of this bet, which leaves our portfolio’s overall profit scenarios now looking like this:
| Winner | Games | Total |
| Pacers | 6 | 146.88 |
| Pacers | 5 | 129.28 |
| Pacers | 7 | 93.69 |
| Thunder | 6 | 79.06 |
| Thunder | 5 | 46.03 |
| Thunder | 7 | 25.87 |
Pick: Under 6.5 Games (–175). 13.00 units to win 4.73.
Stanley Cup Finals
And another day on this as well, with our model still in a little too much agreement with the market. Scenarios, which aren’t great at the moment:
| Result | Probability | Total |
| Oilers in 6 | 17.3% | 30.98 |
| Oilers in 7 | 18.7% | -14.33 |
| Panthers in 5 | 14.8% | -22.05 |
| Panthers in 6 | 20.1% | -49.80 |
| Panthers in 7 | 15.2% | -113.11 |
Pick: Under 6.5 Games (–175). 6.00 units to win 3.43.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –296.51 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 372 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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