Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,321 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 1,739 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
Today’s MLB futures and one NFL pick. Here’s the context on each.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on those 750 units is 101.44 units, or 13.5%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 3–9–5, we’re down 6.39 units, we’re down 38%. It’s a small sample, but we’ve been getting smoked.
ALCS
One of these is a hedge. There’s only the most questionable value on the Rangers and we need to raise our floor, something we can only really do by placing a hedge. Four units on the Rangers, we don’t think it’s good value but it’s the least bad option, and we have plenty of leverage elsewhere to employ in the effort.
The Astros value is solid. It doesn’t raise our floor, but it helps push a few unprofitable scenarios into profitable territory. We now stand to profit within the ALCS market on all four remaining teams. The problem is the World Series market.
Pick: Texas to win +210. Medium confidence. x2 (Hedge)
Pick: Houston to win +130. Medium confidence.
World Series
Helping address that problem, we’re putting four units on Houston here. Again, the value is good. The Astros are currently the World Series favorites. They aren’t favored over the field, but they’re in a great spot, and they’re a very good ballclub. This makes them a profitable World Series outcome for us, and it adds that extra value we need. Our worst-case scenario this round is the Dodgers, Braves, Rangers, and Astros all winning. If that does happen, four of the eight ensuing possible scenarios are now profitable, and they’re the likeliest four scenarios. We’re getting closer and closer to locking in a profit, but we need help (the Astros and Rangers losing today would provide some of that help).
Pick: Houston to win +340. Medium confidence. x2
Kansas City @ Minnesota
To get out of this hole we’ve dug ourselves, we’re going to do the same thing that’s gotten us mostly into the hole: Bet on a Super Bowl contender to beat a non-Super Bowl contender by more than a few points. (We’re actually 2–3–1 on those bets, and 2–1–1 if we get rid of the teams who turned out to not at all be Super Bowl contenders. So maybe it’ll work.)
Pick: Kansas City –3 (–118). Low confidence.
