Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,863 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Just three markets today, as we take the weekend off of MLB futures. Here’s what to know about each.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 25–13, we’re up 10.35 units, we’re up 27% (the average line on our winners has been –107). It’s been a down week, but we wouldn’t be saying that if the Astros had held a three-run two-out/eighth-inning lead last night. This isn’t to complain—it’s part of the game—but is to say that things are going well, and that small samples are fickle.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 4.74 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.29 units so far.
Toronto @ Pittsburgh
Yusei Kikuchi is riding a great downtick in walk rate to the best ERA of his career, coming into today averaging just 1.72 BB/9 while posting a 4.02 ERA against career averages, respectively, of 3.54 BB/9 and a 4.96 ERA.
Don’t buy it yet.
The walk thing is quite possibly real, but home runs are increasing against the lefty for the fourth straight year, his xERA and FIP are both above 5.00, and with respect to this game, where rain might be a factor, the Pirates’ bullpen is remarkably fresh for a Sunday, a product of their six-game losing streak giving them few recent opportunities to close out games. We’ll fade Kikuchi, taking the Bucs to turn it around.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +116. Low confidence. (Kikuchi and Contreras must start.)
NBA Finals
We don’t have much down on the Celtics, so any time there’s positive value available on them, we’re going to take it. Today’s one of those days. It’s narrow, clocking in with an eROI between 0.1% and 2.4% using FiveThirtyEight’s probabilities, but it’s positive.
Pick: Boston to win +125. Low confidence.
Eastern Conference
The Panthers have a great chance tonight to put this second round away, playing the Leafs at home and already leading the series 2–0. If they do ultimately eliminate Toronto, they’ll have finished the two hardest parts of the Eastern Conference process, taking down the Bruins—hockey’s best team—and the Leafs, who aren’t second-best but are likely better than the Hurricanes and Devils across the bracket. We’ll add a unit here.
Pick: Florida to win +200. Low confidence.
