Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,343 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus NBA and NHL futures. MLB futures are off for the weekend.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 25–30 so far, down 5.35 units. We’re on another cold stretch right now.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.79 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down one unit so far.
Baltimore @ Cincinnati
Nick Lodolo has been great since coming off the IL, going at least five innings in all four of his starts while striking out almost 1.25 batters per innings (and walking only 0.25). Meanwhile, Dean Kremer’s ERA is deceptively strong, as he’s allowed more than one home run per start and has had some mild control issues in his last few outings. Eventually, that’s going to result in dingers with runners on base, and the ERA’s going to jump.
Pick: Cincinnati to win –127. Low confidence. (Kremer and Lodolo must start.)
NBA Finals
What’s the best way to respond to the Timberwolves winning Game 1? I’m not sure. The thought process here, though, is that the Timberwolves moved the needle in their direction not only in terms of having a win in the bank but in terms of how the series looks from here. There wasn’t much about that performance that looked unsustainable. Since we already have upside on the Wolves, and we’re still wary of that Celtics/Nuggets matchup, this is a way to bet on something associated with the Wolves (the Celtics’ odds should shorten if the Wolves do beat the Nuggets) without further exposing ourselves to risk on their front.
Pick: Boston to win +120. Low confidence.
Western Conference (NHL)
The Canucks have goaltending health issues. These are a real problem, especially heading into a team as good at scoring as the Oilers. But the Oilers are so overvalued, at least per Gelo, that we really like this price nonetheless. The Western Conference side of our portfolio isn’t in a great spot—we’ve lost a unit each on the Jets, Kings, and Predators—but we still think fading the Oilers is the move, and thankfully, our Eastern Conference bets have a lot of upside.
Pick: Vancouver to win +650. Low confidence.
