Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,885 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Gelo got a win last night, and the Rangers helped us out in the long run as well. More hockey today, but only futures as we wait for Game 7 in that series tomorrow. We also have F1, IndyCar, and NASCAR in a full day of racing, so let’s begin with that. (For futures portfolio context: The NHL futures bankroll started at 100 units, with another 100 in reserve in case of hedging need.)
Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix
There’s an element here where it depends how much recency you want to employ: Polesitters have won only two of the last six Monaco Grands Prix, but they’ve won eight of the last twelve and twelve of the last seventeen (but also only twelve of the last 22). Leclerc should be a strong polesitter—it’s not an anomaly for him to be up front this year—and with both cars directly behind him having changed their gearboxes (and the memory of Leclerc changing his and what happened after that last year fresh on the mind), there just isn’t another obvious play. We’ll take the favorite, even with what are close to ridiculous odds anywhere else.
Pick: Charles Leclerc to win -225. Low confidence.
Indy 500
Indy 500 qualifying isn’t a perfect indicator of a car’s strength during the race, because 500 miles is a lot longer for a car to hold up than a few qualifying laps, and teams plan accordingly. Still, it’s a decent proxy for where cars end this thing.
On the front row, it’s striking to see Rinus VeeKay’s odds double those of Scott Dixon and Álex Palou despite running near-identical times. On the second row, Ed Carpenter’s more of a wild card, but Tony Kanaan has won this thing and is in a capable car. On the third row, Felix Rosenqvist is a reliable IndyCar driver, race in and race out. Is there value on these four? I would guess so. To be transparent, I don’t fully know. But I would guess so.
Pick: Rinus VeeKay to win +1200. Low confidence.
Pick: Tony Kanaan to win +1800. Low confidence.
Pick: Ed Carpenter to win +2000. Low confidence.
Pick: Felix Rosenqvist to win +2500. Low confidence.
NASCAR Cup Series: Coca-Cola 600
The race being 600 miles matters here, as Kyle Larson’s practice wreck and second-to-last-place starting position shouldn’t end his day before it starts. It also matters because you have to be able to count on the car to hold up. This adds value where we’re already seeing it on the Hendrick Motorsports cars (with the exception of Chase Elliott, on whom we just aren’t seeing enough initial value), and makes us wary of Kurt Busch, with 23XI unproven. We’ll take the elder Busch anyway—his car’s been great recently, and he’s among the most trustworthy drivers on the circuit when it comes to keeping it together.
Pick: Kyle Larson to win +675. Low confidence.
Pick: William Byron to win +1100. Low confidence.
Pick: Alex Bowman to win +1500. Low confidence.
Pick: Kurt Busch to win +1600. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
We might look back at right now as a good time to hedge, with he Hurricane—one of our two unprofitable teams, alongside the Avalanche—facing an elimination game tomorrow night. The value on them just isn’t very good, though, and while Gelo might be really missing some home-ice advantage nuance (especially with a team that’s now 7-0 on the playoffs at home and 0-6 on the road), we’re willing to cross that bridge a little later. Hopefully, the Rangers take care of business and our picture becomes really, really simple. For now, we’ll dig even deeper on the Lightning, whom Gelo views as the best hockey team in this, at least as of today.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +250. Low confidence.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +250. Low confidence.
