Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,939 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Three markets today, with MLB futures back tomorrow. Here’s how we operate in each.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 35–24, we’re up 6.81 units, we’re up 12% (the average line on our winners has been –114). It’s been a good start to the year, and while May hasn’t been a great month overall, we’re up on the week.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 7.63 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.03 units so far.
Miami @ Anaheim
Eury Pérez should be really good, but he isn’t just yet, and his ERA’s masking some major contact issues. Couple that with how spent the Marlins’ bullpen is (they’ve got a guy who’s pitched four straight days), and this is one where the Angels should avoid the sweep. Patrick Sandoval doesn’t need to be his best version, but it wouldn’t hurt if he was.
Pick: Anaheim to win –127. Low confidence. (Pérez and Sandoval must start.)
NBA Finals (Hedge)
Five units on this one, as we’re cashing in a bit on our Heat value. It’s not the situation we want—we were really going to be cruising if the Heat had won last night—but we’re working with what we’ve got, and this should keep us comfortably profitable no matter how the rest of the postseason turns out.
Pick: Boston to win +125. Low confidence. x5
Western Conference (Hedge)
This is not good value either. The Knights are still far likelier than the Stars to win this series. This does, however, lock us back into only upside on the Western Conference Finals, so we’ll take it. Our big value is still further down the track—we’d really like the Knights to ultimately lift the Cup, at least as our bets stand right now—but we’ve gotten here by watching our back and trying to keep the ship above the even-money line. This helps that cause.
Pick: Dallas to win +270. Low confidence.
