Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,391 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus NBA and NHL futures. MLB futures are off today, as usual, but will return tomorrow.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 42–50 so far, down 12.50 units. It is going terribly. For better or worse, there is a lot of season left.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.67 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down 2.20 units so far.
Milwaukee @ Boston
The Brewers are better than the Red Sox, but this is a really good price for Tanner Houck, and while we do continue to struggle, I don’t believe our Sunday bets (always on Saturday losers) have been abnormally bad.
Pick: Boston to win –133. Low confidence. (Myers and Houck must start.)
NBA Finals
We’ve been surprised by the Mavericks, and we’re concerned about the Mavericks, but we do think the first two games of the Western Conference Finals were partly an underperformance by the Wolves. Meanwhile, the Celtics answered some questions last night, even if the hole was of their own creation.
Pick: Boston to win –215. Low confidence.
NHL Western Conference
The series goes back to Edmonton, but Dallas should be better enough than the Oilers to split there and retake the advantage heading into Games 5, 6, and 7. The Oilers still pose a huge threat to our outcomes here, but the Rangers winning today could make that mean a bit less.
Pick: Dallas to win –110. Low confidence.
