Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,864 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Busy day today. F1, NASCAR, and plenty from Gelo. For futures portfolio context: The NHL futures bankroll started at 100 units, with another 100 in reserve in case of hedging need.
Formula 1: Spanish Grand Prix
Max Verstappen is at shorter-than-even odds here despite Leclerc qualifying first, and while that might be fair, this appears to be the more valuable proposition.
Pick: Charles Leclerc to win +155. Low confidence.
NASCAR Cup Series: All-Star Race
The All-Star Race is a weird one, but our guess is that the fundamentals are fairly comparable to other races, so we won’t change our approach too significantly from last week. With the race at Texas, another 1.5-mile track, we get similar results but the market is too high on Kyle Busch for our tastes. These are longshots—it’s a fairly random event in a fairly random sport—but they should have some value.
Pick: Kyle Larson to win +550. Low confidence.
Pick: Kurt Busch to win +1600. Low confidence.
Florida @ Tampa Bay
Gelo’s love of Tampa Bay is no secret, and while there’s that feeling that series should flip from 2-0 to 2-1, and while the Panthers have had an extra day off to regroup, this game’s also in Tampa and the Lightning might be the better team right now.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win -106. Low confidence.
Carolina @ New York Rangers
It’s been a low-scoring series so far, but that doesn’t mean every game will be low-scoring, and this one looks particularly appealing to Gelo at these odds.
Pick: Over 5.5 +114. Low confidence.
Calgary @ Edmonton
A similar story here, where the market may be overreacting to early totals in this best-of-seven. Gelo remains very low on the Flames, continuing to view them as closer to the Rangers in quality than they are to even the Oilers at this moment.
Pick: Edmonton to win -103. Low confidence.
Pick: Under 7 -127. Low confidence.
Eastern Conference
Again, Gelo really likes the Lightning.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +155. Low confidence.
Western Conference
With the Blues in a rough place, down 2-1 and possibly missing Jordan Binnington, the Oilers winning this series becomes very important to our portfolio, and we’re making it a little more important today. Gelo is very averse to both the Flames and the Avalanche (this isn’t like the Eastern Conference, where it’s cold on the Panthers but merely hesitant on the Canes). We aren’t yet in a position of fully needing to hedge. We’ll pile a little more onto Edmonton, who—by making the Stanley Cup Finals—would currently make us profitable on futures regardless of what happens elsewhere.
Pick: Edmonton to win +600. Low confidence.
