Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,898 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Three markets today, with MLB futures off for the weekend.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 30–22, we’re up 5.13 units, we’re up 10% (the average line on our winners has been –111). It’s been a good start to the year, and while May’s been rough, we’re looking to get to a winning record this week.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.27 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.73 units so far.
Boston @ San Diego
There’s a readiness in the market for the Padres to flop, with flopping something the Padres have done in recent memory and this season not going well so far. Even at six games under .500, though, this is a great team on paper, and Michael Wacha has been solid this year, with two of the best starts in all of baseball on the season. We like the home team to avoid the sweep on the getaway day.
Pick: San Diego to win –141. Low confidence. (Kluber and Wacha must start.)
NBA Finals
With the Lakers losing last night, our doomsday basketball scenario—the Lakers meeting the Celtics in the Finals—is close to a 0% probability. So, we’re back to looking for value. We may still hedge—we have so much upside on the Heat already and we’d like more on the Nuggets and Celtics—but it’s easy to do too much of that. We’re going to take a shot at capturing a little more upside, hoping on Miami to take Game 3 tonight.
Pick: Miami to win +425. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
The probability of our doomsday hockey scenario—a Stars/Hurricanes Stanley Cup Final—is now just 8% even using the market’s rosiest projection for those two. Gelo has it down at 4%. So, we aren’t too worried about that today and are instead focusing on grabbing value in a spot that helps us. Gelo sees value at these odds, and that value helps us, as for all our Panthers betting, we’re yet to put anything on them to win the Cup.
Pick: Florida to win +165. Low confidence.
