Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,379 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus NBA and NHL futures. MLB futures are off for the weekend.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 41–45 so far, down 9.33 units. This is like when a young team unexpectedly performs well one season then opens slow to start the next year: We don’t know whether we’re going to heat back up or if we’re actually just bad at this.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 3.42 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down 1.20 units so far.
Cincinnati @ Los Angeles
We are probably going to lose this bet. For one thing, the Reds are an underdog. For another, we are ice cold on MLB moneylines. Still, in looking for value, we’re not finding anything better than Hunter Greene on a Sunday, when upsets are a bit more common. The Dodgers’ bullpen is stretched a little thin after yesterday, and Landon Knack hasn’t consistently found a spot in even a banged-up Dodgers rotation. We do like the value here. We just don’t trust ourselves very much given the recent results.
Pick: Cincinnati to win +160. Low confidence. (Greene and Knack must start.)
NBA Finals
The deal with our NBA portfolio is that we’re in great shape if the Finals matchup is Celtics/Timberwolves, good shape if it’s Celtics/Nuggets, good shape if the Knicks are involved, and bad shape everywhere else. We’re only seeing value today on the Timberwolves and Celtics. We could hedge, but it’s pretty early for that, and the likelier scenario is that the Mavericks’ odds lengthen a little tomorrow, because the Nuggets are favorites today. We could bet on the Timberwolves, but we’re already in on them rather heavily. So, we’re giving the Celtics another unit. It’s expensive, but that’s been the case and will remain the case. There’s also a very good chance it gets more expensive soon.
Pick: Boston to win –135. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
The price on the Rangers is, as has often been the case, too good to pass up. We have a lot on the Rangers already, but it’s too early to hedge, and the only other team presenting positive value is the Canucks, on whom we also have plenty of preexisting upside.
Pick: New York Rangers to win +360. Low confidence.
