Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,844 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
A Leafs lesson for Gelo yesterday, and we’re pivoting back to a total today. More futures (portfolio context: the bankroll is 100 units, with another 100 in reserve in case we need them for hedging), too, plus NASCAR picks. As always in recent months, low-confidence picks are experimental and have that bad track record listed above. We can only recommend high and medium-confidence picks, but feel free to try the low ones alongside us.
Dallas @ Calgary
For as physical and low-scoring as this series has been, two of the six games have gone over 5.5, and Gelo does see the mean score as 5.62, which—as we’ve said, odd totals are 50% more common than even totals—isn’t comfortable territory, but does probably present a little value at these odds.
Pick: Over 5.5 (+120). Low confidence.
Western Conference
There’s a little value available in these markets on the Rangers and the Penguins, but it isn’t much and it seems likely to be available tomorrow for whichever wins that Game 7, so we’re going to stick to our guns here and with the next one, perceiving the Blues to be undervalued and the Avalanche to be overvalued in the West. Ideally, the Stars will beat the Flames, opening up wider hedging lanes, but even with a Flames win, we should be ok overall.
Pick: St. Louis to win +700. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
There’s a big gap between Edmonton’s Western Conference odds and their Stanley Cup odds, which implies one will correct soon. We can’t say which it’ll be, so this is one to take while it’s there.
Pick: Edmonton to win +1200. Low confidence.
NASCAR Cup Series: AdventHealth400 (Kansas)
Trying a new approach with NASCAR today, which is going to make it stink if one of our alternative options wins, but is feeling necessary with us blowing through units on motorsports and not getting much relief from Gelo on a daily basis (the futures picture is murkier).
All three of these guys were solid (or, in Larson’s case, dominant) last season at 1.5-mile tracks, and all qualified well. There’s a lot of uncertainty—with Atlanta repaved, this is really just the second race of the season at what’s normally thought of as a 1.5-miler—but this is what we’ve got.
Pick: Kyle Larson to win +500. Low confidence.
Pick: Kyle Busch to win +700. Low confidence.
Pick: Kurt Busch to win +1800. Low confidence.
