Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,889 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Three markets today, with MLB futures off for the weekend. Here’s what’s up with each.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 27–18, we’re up 6.78 units, we’re up 15% (the average line on our winners has been –109). It’s been a good start to the year, but we’re on a four-game losing streak, our longest of the season by far. We need to win one soon here.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.27 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 1.73 units so far.
Chicago (NL) @ Minnesota
We’ve lost four straight, we got gutted yesterday by Alex Cora’s decision to go back to Kenley Jansen after an emotional week and a bad outing Friday night, and we’re betting on an underdog today we’ve been low on all year whose starting pitcher’s ERA is leagues better than his xERA/FIP, all while the game might be delayed by rain, inserting randomness into the mix.
We don’t love it.
Sundays are tough. Bullpens are spent, it’s a getaway day, there’s some parsing to be done of which teams are trying to twist the knife and secure sweeps versus which are content to have won the series. Generally, though, we see Saturday’s losers undervalued in Sunday’s market, and the Cubs appear especially undervalued today against Louie Varland, who hasn’t been bad but is an exception to the Twins’ rule of great starting pitching. Marcus Stroman should and will regress, but it’s to a solid baseline, and the Cubs’ bullpen looks fresher than that of their hosts. We’ll take our guys for just the second time this year.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win +120. Low confidence. (Stroman and Varland must start.)
NBA Finals
We think the value’s on the Sixers today, but the Celtics are much likelier to win, and that leads us to the Heat, the team who’d passively benefit most from a Sixers victory. We like the leverage we already have on Miami, and we think we can use it, and even if this price looks bad in the morning, we have the tools available to hedge to a place of comfort once we’re down to eight Finals winner/loser scenarios.
Pick: Miami to win +1400. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
We’ve been hesitant to double down on Vegas, with Edmonton the best remaining team in this, but needing just one win over two games to get through and continuing to show strong value, today’s the day. If the Knights lose Game 6 tonight, we’ll probably wreck ourselves Tuesday trying to decide whether or not to hedge on Game 7, but we’ll at least be down to 16 scenarios for the rest of the path at that point, so there’ll be more clarity on what we’re up against. (Hopefully they just put it away tonight.)
Pick: Vegas to win +400. Low confidence.
