Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,360 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus NBA and NHL futures. MLB futures are off for the weekend.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 35–37 so far, down 4.95 units. We started poorly, we rallied, and we were on another cold stretch going into this week. We pivoted a little on Monday, and we’ve gone 10–6 since, but we’ve only made 1.39 units over those six days. In other words, we don’t know what direction these are headed right now.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.79 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down one unit so far.
Arizona @ Baltimore
This is a little scary for a lot of reasons. The Orioles have been outperforming their projections for almost 24 months now. The Diamondbacks spent a lot of good bullpen in yesterday’s heartbreaker. It’s an early game and the Diamondbacks come from the Western half of the country. It’s raining in Baltimore right now.
Still, we’re in on Arizona. The Orioles spent more bullpen. The Diamondbacks have been in the Eastern Time Zone all week. The rain should calm down momentarily, meaning any delay should be short and communicated ahead of time. Really, this comes down to whether we’re too scared of the Orioles to ever bet against them. We’re not, and especially not on a Sunday, when we’ve found evidence the market overvalues Saturday winners.
Pick: Arizona to win +114. Low confidence. (Gallen and Kramer must start.)
Oakland @ Seattle
The Mariners are looking to win this series, and we’re looking for them to make it happen. It’s pricey, but this is the safest bet of the day, and chasing these safer plays has been part of what’s worked this week.
Pick: Seattle to win –233. Low confidence. (Wood and Castillo must start.)
NBA Finals
We’re only seeing substantial value available today on the Cavs and the Thunder. We understand why that value’s there—we understand the source of doubts about both—but to some extent, it’s probably real. We’re only not taking it because we have plenty of upside already on both those teams. We’ll add to our Celtics anchor instead.
Pick: Boston to win –115. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
The price remains great on this one, and with our upside satisfactorily large on the Rangers, Avalanche, and Canucks, we’re going with it. Here’s how each Stanley Cup scenario stacks up for us now (within only the Stanley Cup market, not across our portfolio as a whole):
| P/L | Stanley Cup |
| +16.85 | Rangers |
| +7.85 | Hurricanes |
| +6.35 | Panthers |
| +0.35 | Bruins |
| –9.00 | West Champ |
We’re exposed to a lot of Oilers risk and a little Stars risk, but overall, we’re in a good place, with plenty of time left.
Pick: Eastern Conference champion to win –110. Low confidence.
