Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,904 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Another win for Gelo last night, though the rapidity of the Avalanche’s surge against the Oilers has us wrestling our futures portfolio a little bit. More for it today, picks for this afternoon’s game, and NASCAR and IndyCar bets below. For futures context: The NHL portfolio started with 100 units, with 100 more units in reserve in case we need them to hedge.
New York Rangers @ Tampa Bay
Either the home-ice advantage in Tampa Bay is unparalleled, the Lightning have gotten a lot better since Friday, or the market is overweighting the likelihood the Lightning win this series. Gelo agrees that they’re the favorite today, but these are long odds for a game much closer to 50/50.
On the total side, Gelo’s not overwhelmingly in on the over—the gap is 0.45 goals, I think, and six is an even number, pushing the true expected number down closer to five—but with longer-than-even odds, we like this side, especially as a diversification option that might bail out our moneyline play (or that might be bailed out by our moneyline play).
Pick: New York Rangers to win +147. Low confidence.
Pick: Over 5.5 (+108). Low confidence.
Eastern Conference
We’re working on a hedging approach to neutralize the risk at the bottom of this table, but there’s value on the Rangers and the Rangers alone right now, per Gelo, and this is a spot where the value can help us even in scenarios in which the Avalanche do win the Cup. Here are the outcomes as things now stand:
| Winner | Loser | Final Net Units |
| Rangers | Oilers | 87.98 |
| Lightning | Oilers | 64.72 |
| Rangers | Avalanche | 44.48 |
| Oilers | Rangers | 36.23 |
| Oilers | Lightning | 28.37 |
| Lightning | Avalanche | 21.22 |
| Avalanche | Rangers | -38.52 |
| Avalanche | Lightning | -46.38 |
Pick: New York Rangers to win -250. Low confidence.
Pick: New York Rangers to win -250. Low confidence.
NASCAR Cup Series @ Gateway: Enjoy Illinois 300
We don’t have a great idea for how today’s going to go: This is the first ever Cup Series race at Gateway, and Gateway isn’t very parallel to many other tracks. Hendrick Motorsports didn’t qualify very well, but they’re a competent team and Kyle Larson is probably the best driver on the circuit. We’ll limit risk here and try to find a little value. Everything low-confidence is experimental, remember.
Pick: Kyle Larson to win +1000. Low confidence.
IndyCar: Detroit Grand Prix
Josef Newgarden dominated last year at Belle Isle until that late caution at the end. He’s on the pole this weekend. IndyCar’s more competitive as a series than Formula 1, but it’s not NASCAR. These odds feel long given the context.
Pick: Josef Newgarden to win +350. Low confidence.
