Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,962 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Three markets today. MLB futures remain off for the weekend.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 38–28, we’re up 5.55 units, we’re up 8% (the average line on our winners has been –113). April was great, May was bad, June is young but promising.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this was designed to leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 17.63 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’ve aimed to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.49 units so far.
Baltimore @ San Francisco
Tyler Wells is having a great year, but the track record is still thin, and his FIP points towards regression. Anthony DeSclafani isn’t an ace by any stretch, but he’s competent, and after Alex Cobb’s gem yesterday, he’s got a well-rested bullpen at his back. This line implies the Orioles are the better team today, given the game’s in California. We don’t believe that they are.
Pick: San Francisco to win –105. Low confidence. (Wells and DeSclafani must start.)
NBA Finals (Hedge)
If the Nuggets win tonight, the line is going to get really, really short. We’re not sure what we’ll do in that scenario. At some point, it becomes silly, even as a hedge, but we’re still lined up to lose 12.83 units if the Nuggets win this series, and while the 47.45 we’re set to win if the Heat win is a lot, it’s not infinite.
Pick: Denver to win –700. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup (Hedge)
This is another hedge, with Gelo continuing to only see value on the Knights in this series, and low value at that. Again, here, we may have to stop hedging, but we’re likelier to do that as a result of the Heat/Nuggets series than the Knights/Panthers one. Right now, we’re set to make 15.42 units if the Knights win (and 2.15 if the Panthers win). We don’t want that Knights number to become too small to outweigh the likely loss on the basketball side. We’re just not confident enough in either of these markets to let it ride, and being unprofitable all-time has us very focused on closing the gap.
Pick: Florida to win +205. Low confidence.
