Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,414 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus NBA futures. MLB futures are off for the weekend, and we’re taking the day off from NHL futures as well. Not seeing anything there we have to have. Glad we placed the big Panthers bet yesterday. The Stars winning tonight would be very good for us.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 48–54 so far, down 11.62 units. It’s been a terrible performance, and while we had a good start to the week, the last three days went poorly, capped off by that low-upside, especially frustrating Braves loss yesterday.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re down 7.83 units so far, but we’re set to profit on the effort if the Celtics win the Finals.
Washington @ Cleveland
We like the Nationals here. They’ve been consistently competitive, Jake Irvin’s having a strong year, and Carlos Carrasco—while still capable—is on the wrong side of the aging curve. The Guardians have used Emmanuel Clase two days in a row, and while it wouldn’t be unprecedented for him to go a third time, that’s another little edge. Give us Washington to avoid the sweep.
Pick: Washington to win +120. Low confidence. (Irvin and Carrasco must start.)
San Diego @ Kansas City
It’s a bad moment for Kansas City, but before this 1–6 stretch they won eight in a row. Give us Cole Ragans to play stopper.
Pick: Kansas City to win –128. Low confidence. (No starting pitcher requirement.)
NBA Finals
Another one on the Celtics today. We’re now effectively in on Boston for 34.83 units at –929 odds. That’s what our portfolio, in effect, is.
Pick: Boston to win –210. Low confidence.
