Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,509 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines. MLB futures are off for the weekend, and we’re going to wait until tomorrow to decide whether to hedge out of our Panthers position in the NHL futures portfolio.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 76–72 so far, down 8.03 units. It seems we did not, in fact, find something that worked. We keep trying, though. For better or worse.
Chicago (AL) @ Detroit
Jonathan Cannon’s made two great starts in a row, including one in Chicago against an Astros lineup that remains very good on paper. He threw a lot of pitches in that start, though, he’s only on normal rest, and the newsworthiness of those two good starts says a lot about what should reasonably be expected of him. The Tigers are fading, but we think they get it done today.
Pick: Detroit to win –178. Low confidence. (Cannon and Reese must start.)
Kansas City @ Texas
The Royals are also fading, and we don’t know that they’ll get it done today. We do think that Max Scherzer is probably overvalued in his return, though. Bettors are ready to jump back in on the Rangers, but a 39-year-old coming off a long string of injuries is unlikely to prove their savior. This little win streak is only a little win streak. It’s not a return to World Series contention.
Pick: Kansas City to win +142. Low confidence. (Marsh and Scherzer must start.)
