Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,465 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines. That is all. MLB futures are off for the weekend, and we’re currently letting our NBA and NHL portfolios ride, although we’ll reevaluate again tomorrow.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 69–64 so far, down 4.91 units. It’s been a terrible performance, one in which every sign of progress has been met with a swift comedown. To pick a selective sample, though, we’re 20–9 over the last twelve days, and we’ve cut our deficit by more than half over that timeframe.
Cleveland @ Toronto
José Berríos is a reliable workhorse by the standards of baseball today, but he’s ripe for regression, and this Guardians team has so far this season shown it knows how to win.
Pick: Cleveland to win +104. Low confidence. (Lively and Berríos must start.)
San Diego @ New York (NL)
Dylan Cease has cooled off over the last few weeks, but he’s still been great, and while the Mets have played better baseball recently (even sneaking into the fringes of the playoff race), I don’t know that we should actively be afraid of them just yet.
Pick: San Diego to win –143. Low confidence. (Cease and Megill must start.)
Kansas City @ Los Angeles
It’s pricey, and the Dodgers did use a lot of bullpen last night, but they have a lot left, and Tyler Glasnow is never a bad bet when he’s healthy.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –245. Low confidence. (Singer and Glasnow must start.)
