Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,212 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,257 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks these days are mostly in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
We’ve got a college basketball play, we’ve got an NFL pick, and we’ve got our daily college football futures mechanizing. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 20–16. We’re up 2.06 units and we’re up 6%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 17–21–7. We’re down 5.76 units and we’re down 13%.
College football futures: We started the season with 300 units in our college football futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 200 of those over the season’s fifteen weeks and keep 100 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. We’re down a little more than 40 units so far, but we have upside remaining. More importantly: All of the bets we list here grade out as positive-value bets unless we explicitly mark them as a hedge.. So, if you’ve been faithfully following, we’re still on track to not lose more than 25% (and we retain upside), but if you’re new, these are a good place to start.
Grambling State @ Washington State
Grambling’s been getting thrown around in these buy games, and Washington State’s been throwing teams around. We’ll take that to continue, with this spread right on the kenpom number.
Pick: Washington State –23 (–115). Low confidence.
Detroit @ Chicago
This line feels like a trap, but we’ll fall into it if that’s what’s the case. The Lions bounced back a little last week, and we still think they’re somewhere between the team we saw in October and the team we saw in the later stages of November. Also, the Bears have been riding a little higher than what’s probably their true state.
Pick: Detroit –3 (–115). Low confidence.
Sugar Bowl
The value here is about dead even, per Movelor. We’re taking it because Texas is our biggest liability and we *think* Movelor’s maybe a little low on the Longhorns’ chances given it doesn’t distinguish between when Quinn Ewers was hurt and when Quinn Ewers was healthy.
Pick: Texas to win –180. Low confidence. x5
Rose Bowl (Hedge)
This one is a pure hedge. It keeps scenarios profitable where North Dakota State wins the FCS championship and Alabama beats Washington in the CFP title game. That’s only about 3% of scenarios, but it helps elsewhere as well, and you could convince us that Michigan/Alabama is a true 50/50 tossup, which would make this valuable anyway.
Pick: Alabama to win +105. Low confidence.
