We mentioned yesterday that we might not take the anti-Rockies run line on Sundays, given how strange Sundays are in Major League Baseball. Sure enough, we checked and the Rockies have a winning record against a +1.5 spread this season in games played on the sabbath. So, we’ll take a day off of that and resume it tomorrow.
In the meantime, another MLB moneyline, more NBA and NHL playoff futures, and picks for the Indy 500 and other big races on four wheels.
Toronto at Tampa Bay
We’re having to stretch it here—we’re including some injury math, and we’re not sure our methodology’s correct on how to do that—but if we wiggle enough, we can make this fit our Sunday constraints. The Blue Jays lost yesterday. Chris Bassitt’s been great. The Blue Jays are fresh enough that we think their FanGraphs win probability is actually more like 51.0%, not the 49.7% where FanGraphs currently lists it. That makes –104 narrowly positive-EV.
Pick: Toronto to win –104. 15.00 units to win 14.42. Bassitt and Pepiot must start.
NBA Eastern Conference
The value’s still there. Four more units.
Pick: Indiana to win –470. 4.00 units to win 0.85.
Stanley Cup
Our model doesn’t see value on either side today in the Oilers/Stars series, but it does have the Panthers north of 50% likely to win the Stanley Cup.
Pick: Florida to win +400. 4.00 units to win 4.00.
Indy 500
Marcus Ericsson’s won an Indy 500 before, and he’s starting in the first three rows. He isn’t with Chip Ganassi Racing anymore, but he did alright on ovals last year with Andretti. Well enough to take a flier on him at this price, which puts him slightly above the average win probability in the race.
Pick: Marcus Ericsson to win +2800. 3.00 units to win 84.00.
Coca-Cola 600
There’s some weird pricing on this one. Kyle Larson’s awesome, but should he really be the favorite? And why is John Hunter Nemechek, who qualified sixth and just finished in the top ten at consecutive 1.5-mile ovals, such a longshot?
We’re not taking Nemechek to win or anything, but 3-to-1 to finish top ten again here looks like opportunity.
Pick: John Hunter Nemechek to finish top ten +300. 3.00 units to win 9.00.
Monaco Grand Prix (Formula 1)
I don’t really understand why Lando Norris, the polesitter, is available at this long of a price. Monaco is a parade. I know they’ve instituted the two pit stop rule, and that does introduce a little more variability, but not enough for this, right?
Pick: Lando Norris to win –140. 3.00 units to win 2.14.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –269.91 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 339 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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