Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 445 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would be a decent annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Four picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Baltimore @ Boston
Nathan Eovaldi is starting for the Red Sox today, which used to be something that wouldn’t warrant much notice. Now, after a year of struggles and a long bout with injury, it’s news.
The World Series hero is expected to be on a 60-pitch limit today, so he won’t go more than a few innings, but with the Red Sox searching for answers, it’s a hopeful moment in Boston. And while his year-to-date numbers are bad (5.77 ERA, 5.37 FIP), he’s got a 2.62 FIP in 13+ innings since returning from the IL. It’s a small sample size, but reason enough for optimism.
Pick: Under 12 (-105). Low confidence.
San Diego @ Philadelphia
The long-term concerns regarding Fernando Tatís Jr.’s back injury are more significant than how it will affect the rest of this Padres season. San Diego was not playoff-bound, so the insertion of Ty France and his 64 wRC+ at second base, while damaging, isn’t the end of the world.
Even with Tatís out and Franmil Reyes in Cleveland, the Padres lineup has some pop. Manny Machado’s power numbers have predictably declined as he’s moved from hitter-friendly Camden Yards to decidedly-hitter-unfriendly Petco Park, but he’s still on pace for 35 home runs. And Hunter Renfroe continues to take steps forward at the plate, with his 112 wRC+ just points off of last year’s career-best, even with a puzzlingly unlucky .252 BABIP.
The Padres are worse without Tatís, today and always. But they’re not suddenly a pushover.
Pick: San Diego to win (+108). Low confidence.
Miami @ Colorado
After a sizzling first five starts (1.24 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 29 IP), Jordan Yamamoto has returned to Planet Earth. But while he hasn’t been the same pitcher since then, his 4.57 FIP is certainly serviceable.
Which is encouraging coming from a guy FanGraphs had ranked as the Marlins’ 23rd-best prospect at the time of his promotion.
Pick: Miami +1.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Pick: Under 14 (-115). Low confidence.
