Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,844 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Three markets today, with our MLB futures off for the weekend. Here’s the context in each world.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 22–9, we’re up 11.35 units, we’re up 37% (the average line on our winners has been –108). That 37% number is unlikely to be sustained, but we’re a month in and it’s going very well.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 3.79 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.61 units so far.
Pittsburgh @ Washington
The Pirates’ hot start is a story. The Nats’ floundering is a story. But for as good as Johan Oviedo and the Bucs have been, Josiah Gray’s been just as good. One part of the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner return, Gray has a 3.17 xERA so far, and while his FIP’s only 4.74, that’s not bad for a pitcher in his second full season, especially after last year was rough. He’s averaging five and a half innings per start, and after the Pirates swept yesterday’s doubleheader, the Nationals are in a good position to bounce back. We like this one.
Pick: Washington to win +127. Low confidence. (Oviedo and Gray must start.)
Eastern Conference
We continue to like the Nuggets and Heat, with a little bit of upside out there on the Lakers and Sixers as well. The Heat match up the best combination right now of upside and fresh value for us, with our only other play on them yesterday’s to get past the Knicks. We’re effectively fading the Knicks, the Suns, and the Kings right now. That isn’t the worst place to be.
Pick: Miami to win +900. Low confidence.
Western Conference
We like the value in the Western Conference on everyone but the Avalanche right now. We like the Oilers the most of those teams, and we don’t have anything on them to win the conference itself. This is a nice piece for our assortment.
Pick: Edmonton to win +200. Low confidence.
Game 7: Seattle @ Colorado
This is a hedge. We think it’s bad value, but it helps our odds of winding up profitable through the first round, so we’re taking it. Someone once told us that if we don’t feel confident in our understanding of an asset and we stand to make money from an investment through it, we should take the money, and we think that’s sound advice here. This effectively leaves our worst case scenario to be exiting the first round down 0.06 units on NHL futures this season, with our best case scenario to exit it up 0.29. It’s a small window, but with no dead value later in the playoffs (as of now—we do need the Bruins to win tonight to keep that true), we’re ok with it. Especially with baseball and the NBA currently going so well.
Pick: Colorado to win –201. Low confidence. x2
