Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,831 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Four markets today, including a NASCAR pick. Here’s the context on what we’re up to.
On single game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 16–8, we’re up 6.54 units, we’re up 27% (the average line on our winners has been –110). That 27% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been an encouraging few weeks. Can we do 5% from here? 10%? Lot of season to go.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.29 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge.
For NASCAR: We don’t have any portfolio or broad approach. We bet longshots on a few superspeedway races a year. It hasn’t worked out yet, but boy has it come close enough to keep on bringing us back. That’s how they get you.
Miami @ Cleveland
A highly-ranked starting pitching prospect is making his debut for the Guardians.
It’s a familiar script, and Cleveland’s at the level developmentally (with pitching specifically) where it’s fair to expect more out of their guys than rankings indicate. They consistently pull it off. But that’s not why we like this play.
We like this play because it is very hard to sweep a series, and we don’t think the Marlins have that killer instinct, and after the Guardians lost both halves of yesterday’s doubleheader, we like them to bounce back and get out of the weekend more or less unscathed.
Pick: Cleveland to win –118. Low confidence. (Luzardo and Allen must start.)
Eastern Conference
This is a longshot, but the Heat have put us in position to take some of those, in more ways than one.
The first way the Heat have helped us is by making our future on them to eliminate the Bucks very valuable. We got them at +750 before the series began. They’re at +165 right now. That’s likelier to not pay off than to pay off, but the expected value is still high, which gives us the option to hedge out of it and solidify value if we want to. Tomorrow, before their Game 4, we’re going to do the math and make that decision.
The second way the Heat have helped us is by making it fairly likely that the Bucks will be eliminated. That should create value on both the Knicks and the Cavs, but we’re only seeing it on the Cavs right now. So, it’s the Cavs we’re taking. Wish it was the Knicks, but hopefully the Cavs can take back control of the series today.
Pick: Cleveland to win +3000. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
The Knights took control of home ice again yesterday afternoon in Winnipeg, and tomorrow, they have the chance to go up three games to one on the series. If they get past the Jets, as is likely, they’ll face the Oilers or the Kings next, but here’s where we get some help: Not only do we have something outstanding on the Kings to win their series, but Gelo sees value on them again today. We don’t want to overexpose ourselves to Kings risk, but this is a way to still bet on that value in a lower-leverage way. We’ll take it.
Pick: Vegas to win +1200. Low confidence.
Geico 500 (NASCAR Cup Series at Talladega)
Is Kyle Busch going to go out of his way to wreck Corey LaJoie at a superspeedway in payback for last week? No. That would be stupid, and Kyle Busch might be a free man, but he isn’t stupid.
LaJoie is at his best on superspeedways. One of these days, he’s going to win one. These odds look artificially inflated by the Busch beef.
Pick: Corey LaJoie to win +6600. Low confidence.
