Yesterday, we wrote:
On the one hand, we’ve lost six straight MLB moneylines. On the other, we’re 0-for-3 on first round NBA/NHL series futures, including one we expected to win when we placed it.
Can we make it seven and four?
We did indeed make it seven and four.
Today: Our daily MLB moneyline, our weekday MLB futures, and our daily NBA and NHL playoff futures.
Houston at Chicago (AL)
This is a little stitious of us, but we’re not going to jump ship on our approach in the middle of a disastrous losing streak. We need to end it before we do that. For better or worse, our approach has us taking a big swing today. The White Sox aren’t that bad.
Pick: Chicago to win +197. 15.00 units to win 29.55. Valdez and Cannon must start.
NL West
On the futures side, we’re doubling up on the Dodgers. It’s so rare to see positive expected value on these guys that even with the low payout, we need to take it when we have the chance. Especially this year, when we’re worrying more about profit probability again after overemphasizing raw value last year and leaving our long-term balance vulnerable.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –400. 4.00 units to win 1.00.
Stanley Cup
Our model really disagrees with markets’ perceptions of the Edmonton Oilers, as does a lot of commentary from people who know hockey better than we do. Our model also disagrees about the Jets, and unfortunately, the experts disagree with us there too. So, take this with a grain of salt. But it seems like recency bias and trust in Connor McDavid are going too far and jacking up Western Conference teams’ odds. There are other plays to be made here, and I’m sure we’ll make them as this all winds on, but we still think there’s a good hockey team in Manitoba.
Pick: Winnipeg to win +1000. 2.00 units to win 20.00.
NBA Eastern Conference
We usually try to place futures on teams playing that given day (since it’s going to be different the next day), but we’re not seeing futures value on either the Warriors or the Rockets tonight. So, we’re going to stock up a little more on the Celtics, whose path through the Eastern Conference still looks attainable. We don’t know how good the Cavs really are. That’s kind of the deal with the NBA and with when teams make leaps. We do know the Celtics are much better than the Knicks.
Pick: Boston to win –140. 2.00 units to win 1.43.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –207.72 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 314 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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